Program GMU  Secretary of State 
Date & Time    1.10.03 
Subject    Peace Process/elections

SEAMUS MCKEE

Further talks will take place today between David Trimble and Gerry Adams in London in an attempt to find a solution to the political deadlock.  Will there be an election?  The Secretary of State, Paul Murphy, joins us from the Labour Party Conference in Bournemouth.

Has a deal been done yet?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well of course they're still, as you've just described, talking about the various issues which ultimately, of course, led to the suspension of the Assembly almost a year ago, and so I hope that the talks will be productive and fruitful and like everybody else I want this process to move forward, including to have an election but what we also have to ensure is that we try to get a Government for Northern Ireland too, and that's really what lies behind the talks that we're seeing today.  So I hope they will be fruitful, as I say.

SEAMUS MCKEE

What are the prospects of the IRA being specific about Paragraph 13 of the Joint Declaration, the activities it needs to stop?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well, again, that's something which presumably is the subject of discussions today.  I hope, obviously, that the combination of more definition of how we want to move towards the end of paramilitary activity, especially of course because of the circumstances by the IRA, but that has to be coupled by saying too that the existence now of the Independent Monitoring Commission, which wasn't there back in the spring, and I do hope that that will be a source of reassurance and the fact that because of its absence then, of its presence now, that's a new factor which could help move the process forward. So it's a combination of that on the one hand and also hopefully of some fresh approach to the question of paramilitary activity will be enough to persuade people that they can join together in an Executive, which is what we want.

SEAMUS MCKEE

Is the republican movement being pressed to accommodate Mr.. Trimble on what he sees as the need for visible decommissioning, to build confidence?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well we did some of that, of course, back in the spring in the sense that we did have answers to two of the three questions that Tony Blair posed back some months agoŠ

SEAMUS MCKEE

But Mr.. Trimble appears to want more on decommissioning?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well that's obviously what they'll have to talk with each other about and that's the whole purpose, of course, of negotiations and discussions is that, you know, we have to come to a mutual understanding and an agreement. Some people have to give something whereas other people have to give something else.

SEAMUS MCKEE

Do you agree with Mr.. Trimble when he does say that there's a need for more now?

SECRETARY OF STATE

What I agree with is that there should be sufficient done in order to give confidence and trust to people who are going to move into this process so that they can work together.  That's the ultimate test, because after all it was the collapse of trust which led to the collapse of the Assembly and whatever is done should be sufficient to ensure that they move forward. After all, you know, the nationalists will argue too that the sustainability of the institutions is very important for Assembly's to be up one day and down the other, that's crucially important and, of course, unionists and others will argue rightly about the question of paramilitary activity.  So there are difficult issues there and we all know how difficult they are but that is the purpose of why the leaders are talking today and have talked over the last number of weeks.

SEAMUS MCKEE

Could a way be found through this decommissioning problem with a published inventory, for example, or with churchmen being involved, what's the solution do you think?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well I think they're all possibilities and, as I say, I thought the aim really is to do it in such a way that there is sufficient confidence right across the board.  You know, we've got an International Monitoring Commission for the, sorry, Decommissioning Commission, for that very purpose.

SEAMUS MCKEE

But they don't publish an inventory at the present time, it's done privately, that's the unionists' problem?

SECRETARY OF STATE

That is right and they were, those issues were addressed some months ago, how best you can make the process more acceptable, more visible if you like, so that people have more confidence in that process.  That again is something they will have to discuss but I think the point is well taken. But also, of course, an act of decommissioning followed by some sort of guarantee that decommissioning will carry on is something that everybody's looking for, after all it's part of the Good Friday Agreement, and as I say, will build reassurance.

SEAMUS MCKEE

Will there be an election even if a deal isn't completed?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well our view, as I said many times, is that we want an election to happen. We want the democratic process to go forward, but at the same time we want to make sure that people understand that an Assembly on its own isn't the answer to the problems of the institutions.

SEAMUS MCKEE

There has to be an Executive?

SECRETARY OF STATE

We have to have a Government as well, but I'm not trying to pre-empt what's going to come out of the next number of days and weeks with regard to negotiation.  Our view as a Government is clear, elections are vital, we want them to happen but we're equally saying that we want to try to make sure that we get an Executive.

SEAMUS MCKEE

But if you don't have the prospect of an Executive could there still be an election in a way that would allow people to show how they think the way forward should be and should happen?

SECRETARY OF STATE

I understand that, I understand the point of view that people have but I think to, sort of, throw in the towel at an early stage and say, look, we just want an Assembly and we let the Executive sort itself out afterwards, isn't being fair to the people of Northern Ireland, nor is it right in terms of the Agreement itself.  So we have to keep on pressing forward for all the institutions to be put together.  Now I'm not under-estimating the importance of election because I do understand the points with regard to momentum and the democratic process, but I just want to emphasize that it's only part of a solution.

SEAMUS MCKEE

Labour extending membership to Northern Ireland.  I don't think you had a vote in yesterday's debate.  Are you in favor of it?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well I would have voted in favor yesterday, yes.  The National Executive Committee was very strong in terms of its recommendation to conference.  It wasn't a decision that was taken because of a political initiative but because of a legal one, a judicial one.  We were facing a court action brought against us by members of the GMB union on this very issue.  All the evidence pointed to the fact that we would not have won and the General Secretary's speech made it very clear that we would indeed have, if we hadn't taken the decision we had taken, we would have been leaving the administration and the decision making of the Labour Party in the hands of judges.  Now that frankly isn't what we want, we want to take our own agenda, we want to rule our own administration and in order for that to happen then the NEC said that we should change the rules which indeed I'm hopeful that the party will agree this morning.

SEAMUS MCKEE

And do you think that makes it inevitable that Labour will soon be contesting elections here?

SECRETARY OF STATE

No it doesn't.  As you know the issue at the moment is membership so that somebody, if the rule goes through this morning, that somebody will be able to become a member of the Labour Party, like they can anywhere else including incidentally in Dublin, but so far as organization is concerned then the party has to think very carefully of the implications of all that.

They will be looking at it obviously in the months ahead but there are a number of options available, one is not to organize at all and if you look, for example, at the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland they haven't done very well because people still vote for the Northern Ireland parties, other options are available too.

But we obviously don't want to pre-empt what the party is going to do with regard to that but the decision making today, sorry, the decision today will be entirely about membership of the Labour Party, not about organization.

SEAMUS MCKEE

And even extending membership, doesn't that call into question your impartiality in chairing talks?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Why's that then?

SEAMUS MCKEE

Well, because Labour is now getting involved in Northern Ireland itself and there is the potential, you have said that there's a long way to go before you'd be contesting elections but, with membership being extended here there's the potential that Labour could soon be contesting elections?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well I certainly don't think that people would look at it like that and I don't think, for example, that if you do (unclear) Conservative administration, but because the Conservative Party actually organizes in Northern Ireland, and has membership, that that calls into question the impartiality or independence of the Government Minister.  Certainly in my case I always strive, I hope that the party believe it's the case too, to be absolutely independent and to be able to listen to all points of view, I don't think that would be affected by party membership.

Program    GMU 
Date and time    1.10.03  08.37 
Subject    Peace process/elections 

WENDY AUSTIN

Well this morning Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness are in London for a meeting later on with the Ulster Unionist Leader, David Trimble, and also Michael McGimpsey.  Gerry Adams joins us now from London.

Have you been making any progress in these meetings?

GERRY ADAMS

Well I don't think it's fair to describe them as anything other than work in progress.  The discussions aren't finished.  We're dealing with all the issues.  I think there's been an unfortunate spin from some quarters, which is quite mischievous, and which I think is actually aimed at trying to sabotage our discussions.

But we're working our way through all of the issues, and let's keep at it until we make the type of progress which both parties will be satisfied with.  And our template is the Good Friday Agreement, that's what we are basing all our discussions on, seeing the Good Friday Agreement fully implemented.

WENDY AUSTIN

We've heard a bit about your relations with David Trimble in recent days. They were pretty frosty at the time of the Good Friday Agreement, we gather you're getting on better with him now, but equally, that doesn't mean he's taken his eye off the ball.  I mean is he getting anywhere with you, or are you in a position to influence the IRA on what Mr.. Trimble feels are the crunch points, IRA weapons and activities?

 GERRY ADAMS 

Well, you know, in all of this it's, I think, not good to focus upon one issue, or indeed upon the responsibilities of one organization.  I read about speculation in the media, you know, that there are going to be other people introduced into IRA acts of putting weapons beyond use, and so on and so on.  I think politicians should stay well out of all of that.  De Chastelain is the Commission (unclear) we all agreed to, De Chastelain is the Commission which has responsibility for dealing with that issue.

It should be left to the armed groups and his Commission, and I don't see any possibility of it being done except under the tutelage of that Commission.  I don't think anyone should undermine it.  I don't think anyone should suggest that other people need to be brought into it, but I don't think any of that has a hope.

WENDY AUSTIN

But you must understand that at least part of the reason why Mr.. Trimble and Ulster Unionists are prepared to talk to you, is not just the mandate that you have, but also that they feel you have the ear of the IRA.  And I wonder, I mean, if that is the case, what do you tell the IRA is in it for them?

GERRY ADAMS

Well we have made it very, very clear to everyone that we are not going near the IRA until we get a date certain and publicly proclaimed for an election. And the election is going to be the accelerator of the process.  There is so much angst and anger within republicanism at the way the British Government rejected initiatives by the IRA leadership on one hand, and then by me on the other hand, and then they went on to compound all of that by canceling the election.

So, you know, your question I think actually is insightful because it indicates that really there mightn't be an awful lot in this for the IRA unless (unclear) helping a process.  At the moment we don't have a process, we don't have elections in the way that they need to be clearly and unequivocally set out.  People need to have some confidence that this British Government is not going to take an A la Carte attitude to the Good Friday Agreement, and we need to have some sense that, for example, on issues like policing powers are going to be transferred and when, that the Institutions are going to be sustained over the long term, and that issues like the Human Rights Commission which is in a mess is going to be fixed, that the Equality Commission is going to be given resources, that the Irish language is going to be sorted.

WENDY AUSTIN

But, of course, you'd be well aware that there are many people who feel that your own party has taken an A la Carte attitude to the deal, or to the Good Friday Agreement.  I mean do you at the moment believe that elections should go ahead right now without a deal, and do you think that's that what we're going to end up having to do?

GERRY ADAMS

Well I don't know how we're going to end up, to tell you the truth.  But I do believe it's a matter of political principle that the elections should go ahead.  You can't have an election just on the basis of a Government's thinking.  At that rate Thatcher would still be in power in Britain and Charlie Haughey, for example, would still be in power in Dublin.

You have to have an election, because people have the right to vote.  And, as one of the original founders of the Civil Rights Movement, which was about one person, one vote, almost 40 years ago, it's a bit of an irony that here we are all this time later making the same argument.  So the election should go ahead anyway.  We, like everyone else, want to see elections (unclear) bring about sustainable Institutions in which, you know, has the Ulster Unionist Party and ourselves, and others, working through this Agreement in the way that we need to be mandated to do so.

WENDY AUSTIN

It's a terrible line, Gerry Adams, we'll leave it at that.

Program    GMU 
Date and time    1.10.03  07.49 
Subject    Political process

SEAMUS McKEE

The Ulster Unionist Leader, David Trimble, will meet the Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in London later today as the political negotiations intensify.  Our security editor, Brian Rowan, joins us, as does our political editor, Mark Devenport, who is in Bournemouth at the Labour Party conference.

Mark, first of all, does it look as if a deal will be done in time?

MARK DEVENPORT

I think there has to be some skepticism about that.  It's one of these things where people blow hot and cold.  We've had a lot of warm air on this front for a while, people saying that David Trimble and the Sinn Fein leadership are getting on very well, and that things are moving forward. But then you start getting a sense that there are difficulties there.

There's a lot of sensitivity, for instance, over the issue of whether there can be any more visible or transparent decommissioning.  I know that London and Dublin are pressing republicans to do the maximum in terms of confidence-building gestures, their argument being that if you're going to go into an election they need to do something that will mean something to the public and therefore give David Trimble a real platform to go into an election campaign.

But there certainly seem to be tensions and sensitivities on that score.  So I think it's too early to say whether we'll get a deal.  We could even be heading towards an election without a deal, possibly.

SEAMUS McKEE

Well, Brian Rowan, the familiar issues are proving tricky again.

 BRIAN ROWAN

If you go back to the last major negotiation in April and May this year, the blockage, the sticking point in those talks was on this issue of paramilitary activities and what was detailed in paragraph 13 of the Joint Declaration, and that was this list which said we need to see an immediate full and permanent cessation of all paramilitary, including military attacks, training, targeting, intelligence gathering, acquisition or development of arms or weapons, other preparations for terrorist campaigns, punishment beatings and attacks and involvement in riots.

You'll remember at that time the IRA refused to read out that list, and nor was Gerry Adams prepared to read it, and I think in the talks that are happening now, this issue is still the sticking point.  And, as I understand things, no new IRA position has been introduced or advanced into these negotiations.  The IRA said in April it was resolved to see the complete and final closure of the conflict.  Republicans would say that it is clear what the IRA means by that and that it will choose and use its own words.  So I think that's where we're still stuck, Seamus, that the Government are still saying in these private discussions with Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, we need this whole issue of activities addressed, but there is no advance, at this stage, on the IRA position that was outlined in April.

SEAMUS McKEE

Mark, you suggested earlier that the issue of visible decommissioning, Mr.. Trimble appears to want more than decommissioning being done in private, this has been the case up to now, is a pressure point.  Is there any way through it that's apparent at the moment?

MARK DEVENPORT

Not really, I mean there are some indications of sort of concepts being traded around, but certainly republicans are saying, one republican I talked to last night was saying this is a no, no, that if they go any further in terms of certainly something like, you know, video evidence, that kind of thing that's being talked about, that this would go down so badly with their grass roots, it will be seen as an act of surrender, and it's simply not deliverable.  I mean there have been other ideas, but the sensitivities on this score makes you wonder whether any of those ideas can really take off and would have wings.

SEAMUS McKEE

And, of course, Mark, on the other hand David Trimble can't give a guarantee, can he, that even after an election he'd be in a position to form an Executive?

MARK DEVENPORT

Well I think he's told republicans, you know, that he is committed to sustaining the Institutions.  But one of the difficulties they have, in terms of playing whatever cards they have, in terms of whether it's words or actions, is that they're looking at what might happen out of an election, should they hold some cards back in order to deal with an alternative unionist leadership that might come forward, or should they bet all their money, as it were, on David Trimble at this particular stage, do the absolute maximum in the hope that he will emerge triumphant from an election.

SEAMUS McKEE

Brian, do you think there could be an election without a completed deal?

BRIAN ROWAN

Well some of those who are close to what's going on, in terms of the talking in the background, at the moment, believe that there can be an election without this all-singing, all-dancing deal across that range of very difficult issues  Institutions, demilitarization, policing, decommissioning, etc.  David Ervine is not involved in the key talks that are going on at the moment.

I think they involve Jonathan Powell, David Trimble, Gerry Adams, etc.  But in the last couple of weeks, or last week or so, David Ervine has spoken to Martin McGuinness last night, yesterday evening he met with David Trimble, and he certainly believes that without a deal there will still be an election.

What he says that's about, is trying to put some impetus into a process that is perceived to be dying on its feet, and he says that's the argument for an election in November.  Now, is it certain, is it in the bag?  Sometimes here, when we think that things are, the bag is inclined to burst.  So I think we could say with no certainty, that there will be an election, but certainly some of those involved in what's going on in the background believe that, even in the absence of a deal, we will get an autumn election.

Program    RTE Radio 
Date & Time    1.10.03 
Subject    Peace Process/elections

PAT KENNY

Moving onto the prospect of elections in Northern Ireland this autumn.  The autumn is well underway.  How likely?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well I hope it will be very likely, but as I said on a number of occasions over the last number of weeks that elections are hugely important.  An Assembly is hugely important and I want that Assembly to be elected.  It is not the whole story of course and the reason why we are having talks at the moment between Gerry Adams and David Trimble and other talks as well is to try and resolve the difficulties that brought the Assembly down in the first place, to try to ensure that we restore trust because as well as having an Assembly we want an Executive as well.

We want a Government of Northern Ireland, which is me and my ministers, and we can only get that because of the nature of the Agreement if we get agreement between nationalists and unionists to work together.  So although important as an Assembly is, important as an election is for the momentum of the process it's not the whole story and I want the whole story to be addressed.

PAT KENNY

David Trimble has warned in a fringe meeting at your conference that unless political deadlock in Northern Ireland was broken during the next fortnight the opportunity for a November election would be lost.  I mean that is simply a matter of the timetable isn't it?

SECRETARY OF STATE

That is simply a matter of the timetable yes.  The situation is that the legislation which we passed some months ago to postpone the elections is itself time limited.  The legislation falls in the middle of November, Nov. 15 I think it is.  So if we want to go back after that date to call elections we have to go back to Parliament.  So obviously we want to try and avoid that.

Secondly of course as you rightly say there is a lead in of five or six weeks or whatever it is for the time you call an election for when an election is held, and so clearly you need to decide on those elections weeks before.  That is why it is important that the issue is resolved as quickly as it can be.

PAT KENNY

What do you think needs to happen?  I mean Gerry Adams has said to the two Governments, he hopes they would be reasonable and rational about what is doable over the coming weeks.  Are we talking about some gesture from the IRA?   Is that necessary?

SECRETARY OF STATE

What is necessary is to do what is necessary to restore trust, whether it is decommissioning, although those issues were addressed actually back in Hillsborough in the spring.  Whether it is about Œthe war is over', whether it is about paramilitary activity, or indeed whether it is about sustainability and stability of our institutions.

All those things at the end of the day are about parties in Northern Ireland trusting each other to be able to come into Government with each other.  So whatever is necessary to restore the trust is important.  We have already got the Independent Monitoring Commission established.  I think that is something very different from what was about in March and April.  That ought to be very, very reassuring for people.  There are other things they talk about at the moment.  Let's hope that they can resolve these problems as quickly as possible.

PAT KENNY

If people have caveat still, if David Trimble's party still don't get their gesture from the IRA but are prepared to actually go to the people, is it possible we can have an election and then no Executive thereafter?

SECRETARY OF STATE

It is possible but it is hardly desirable.

PAT KENNY

Not desirable of course, but I mean is that something that you will look at, you look at the cards as they fall on the table when you must make a decision and it looks, maybe there could be a difficulty in forming an executive, maybe people will not co-operate?  Would you be still prepared to hold a November election in the optimism that perhaps you could cobble something together afterwards?

SECRETARY OF STATE

I want an election to be held as quickly as we can.  I hope that we can have one.  But I am not taking my eyes off that goal of trying to ensure that we get all the institutions up and running because otherwise we only get part of the picture.  And we are not really addressing anything other at the moment other than trying to make sure that all the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement are up and running.

PAT KENNY

Would you have a throw of the dice and actually go for an election even though it wasn't crystal clear that those institutions would be restored?

SECRETARY OF STATE

As I said I really wouldn't want to comment on that at the moment because if I started saying yes or no, then people will take their eyes off the ball and the eyes at the moment should be entirely upon trying to resolve the problems that brought down trust and that is what you have got to do otherwise, you see if you have an election for an assembly, as important that that is, and then they fail to get an executive the rules at the moment say, unless I suspend it again and who wants that, is that they have to get a First and Deputy First Minister installed within a period of 6 weeks, and if that doesn't happen then we have got to call another electionŠŠ

PAT KENNY

It would be a spring time election, that second election and you could go on and on with that process.  So you don't want to go there?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Of course I don't but at the same time I understand the importance of the elections, for people, because it is a question of momentum in the process too, which is important for us to address.

PAT KENNY

Do you sense that momentum is present?

SECRETARY OF STATE

I do sense that there is a real seriousness about the way in which our political leaders in Northern Ireland are engaging with each other and I think that is something for optimism rather than pessimism.

PAT KENNY

So what will you give me?  60:40 that an election will take place in November?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well I have long ceased to be a betting man.  My father was a very good betting man.  I suppose anyone with Irish blood in them enjoys aŠŠ

PAT KENNY

What would your father have given me?

SECRETARY OF STATE

I am not sure.  But put it this way, I think that as I say the balance of probability comes down on the optimist rather than the pessimist.  And let's hope that people understand that those who are engaged in these political talks at the moment, they are very serious about them.  I see a determination there which is very serious.  I see an appetite for wanting to get local ministers back into Belfast, rather than myself and my colleagues, and devolution back up and running, and that is good news for us.

PAT KENNY

So in the suspension actually perhaps was a salutary lesson in what they were going to miss if it went back direct rule?

SECRETARY OF STATE

Well it is nearly a year now since it has happened and that is a long time for democracy and local administration and the Government of Northern Ireland to have to lie suspended, and as soon as that is changed the better.

PAT KENNY

And watch other people do their jobs?

SECRETARY OF STATE

That is the fact of it.

Program    Sky News 
Date & Time    9/30/ 03  10.42 
Subject    Peace Process and new book

GERRY ADAMS

That history doesn't have to be the way it was, and that things can be changed.

JULIE EDGINGHAM

What is your relationship like with David Trimble at this point?  He's spoken in similarly "positive," I'll put it in inverted commas, terms, about the prospects for elections in November, but he's endlessly pointed towards this issue of disarmament.  He knows, that he's taken all the gambles that he can take in his party, he just managed to scrape back in as leader after another sort of period of turmoil for him.  If you can't deliver that, this issue, this process at this stage, it's finished, surely?

GERRY ADAMS

Well I hope not.  But we could all set up, you know, the bar and set it up very high.  I have difficulties within our party, within broad republicanism, there's a lot of anger there.  There were a number of big initiatives by the IRA in the spring of this year.

When that wasn't sufficient, I put myself in the firing line in more ways than one, and took other initiatives, the British Government rejected it, then compounded that by canceling the elections.  So there's a lot of frustrations, anger, annoyance out there, and I think that the relations with Mr.. Trimble are much better, when this book ends he hadn't spoken to me.

Five years since then, he has shared power with ministers, from Sinn Fein, Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun.  His party has worked on committees with us.  Even the more extreme unionists of the right wing, the DUP have worked in committees in councils throughout the North for the last 20 years. So we have at least a good working relationship.  But the business of the election, is a matter of political principle.

It's also good tactics, because as I said earlier it gives people a sense of ownership, a sense that things are going to change, and I think all of these matters can be resolved, but can they be resolved, you know, if someone stands up and says, do it by this day, and do it in this way?  That hasn't what has worked for either of the unionists or for the republicans.

If I was standing up and demanding of David Trimble, he must do (a) and (b), you know that wouldn't help the situation.  So sometimes, and there's a bit of spin coming out at the moment, you know, that there's going to be a huge breakthrough by the IRA, there's going to be all sorts of progress made, that doesn't bear up to the reality of what we're trying to do.

JULIE EDGINGHAM

So it's just not going to happen in your view, the IRA isn't going to make any further declaration in the next week or so?

GERRY ADAMS

Well the reality is, I don't know.  But I think that it becomes counterproductive and less likely to happen, if others are putting it out as an absolute demand.  It's a process we're involved in.

JULIE EDGINGHAM

When did you last to speak to them, when did you last speak to the Army Council?

GERRY ADAMS

The last time we spoke to the IRA was probably around May, and we made it clear we weren't even going to go back near them, because there was no point, unless there was a declaration on an election, which was put out in terms which were unconditional, and which were for a date certained, and thus far that has not been publicly proclaimed.

JULIE EDGINGHAM

Have they spoken to you in the last week or so?

GERRY ADAMS

No, we've been very clear about this.  It would undermine our project entirely to go to the IRA leadership on the basis of what's happening at the moment, with no guarantees about the institutions, no guarantees about an election, no public proclamation of any of that, and all the other issues that need to be dealt with as well.

Oct. 31, 2003

Trimble Approves Candidates

Ulster Unionist leader  David Trimble tonight formally approved his party's candidates for next month's Assembly election, with a field including two rebel MPs.

Party sources confirmed Trimble had approved the signing of nomination papers for candidates across all 18 constituencies for the Nov. 26 poll.

Among those representing the party will be Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson and South Antrim MP David Burnside, who resigned the party whip at Westminster in a row over policy in June.

There had been speculation that, because the two MPs were in conflict with the UUP leadership, Trimble would refuse to sign their nomination papers, which will be handed in next Monday and Tuesday.

However a source said: "We will be going into the election with everybody on board.  The party will also produce a series of principles which everybody can sign up to.  It covers much of the ground that the Ulster Unionist Executive dealt with at a meeting earlier this month, with a particular focus on the need for acts of completion by republicans."

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein today called on the British and Irish governments to press ahead with the implementation of outstanding aspects of the Good Friday Agreement.

 The party`s chairman Mitchel McLaughlin said that London and Dublin had been due to announce the immediate activation of their Joint Declaration on full implementation as their part of the Oct. 21 deal to kick- start the peace process.

It was not acceptable for the governments to back away from their part in the deal simply because the Ulster Unionists had brought it down by refusing to accept General John de Chastelain`s report on IRA decommissioning, he said.

Sinn Fein also called for the Irish Government to be given a more formal role in the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, so that no future suspensions of the Assembly and Executive or postponement of elections could take place without Dublin`s prior agreement.

Anti-Agreement unionists should not be given the "soft option" of allowing direct rule from Westminster to continue following the November 26 elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, he said.

Speaking during a visit to London, Mr.. McLaughlin said: "Sinn Fein is demanding that the Joint Declaration which deals with Good Friday Agreement issues that the two governments recognize have yet to be delivered should proceed immediately.  Such actions would honor the British and Irish governments` commitments in the sequencing and agreement of last week."

"In the event of unionist obstruction of the implementation and formation of an Executive following the elections, the Irish government must be given a more formal role in the implementation of all of the outstanding issues for full implementation of the Agreement."

Sinn Fein`s demands had been communicated to British Prime Minister Tony Blair through his chief of staff Jonathan Powell over the past few days, Mr.. McLaughlin said.

Previous decisions on suspensions had been taken unilaterally by London, said Mr.. McLaughlin.

A formal say for the Irish government would reassure nationalists that they were being treated equally, while preventing unionists from bringing about a return to direct rule whenever difficulties arise in the devolved institutions.

The Joint Declaration published by the two governments in May this year set out a process for implementation of the Good Friday Agreement`s provisions on a series of key issues like political institutions, demilitarization, policing and equality.

It also said the governments needed to see "an immediate, full and permanent cessation of all paramilitary activity." Blair and Taioseach Bertie Ahern had planned to announce on October 21 that the declaration could now be activated, said Mr.. McLaughlin.

But the announcement did not go ahead because UUP leader David Trimble refused to accept Gen de Chastelain`s report on the act of decommissioning carried out by the IRA without details of what weapons were put beyond use.

McLaughlin said: "In the agreed choreography and sequencing that occurred on Tuesday, Oct, 21, only republicans carried out their part in that agreement. Republicans acted with word and deed and in good faith in the reasonable expectation that the other parties would follow through on their part in that event."

"It is now incumbent on the two governments to carry out their obligations by activating the terms of the Joint Declaration.  It is unacceptable that the only aspect of the Joint Declaration to be actioned to date is the International Monitoring Commission, which is outside of the terms of the Agreement."

"The all-Ireland aspects of the Agreement must proceed. In the absence of an Executive being formed, unionists should be left under no illusion that the governments will once again choose the soft option of direct rule from Westminster."

McLaughlin said that attempts to reach agreement with the unionists ahead of the election had "ended for now" and made clear he believed there was no prospect of the IRA agreeing to lift Gen de Chastelain`s obligation of confidentiality over the decommissioned arms.

But he stressed that Sinn Fein remained committed to dialogue with the UUP and said he was confident that the devolved institutions would eventually come out of suspension.

Sinn Fein also called for the expansion of the areas of co- operation covered by the North-South Ministerial Council to include community development, arts and heritage, economic co-operation and public investment, as well as the enhancement of existing areas of co-operation.

It called for the creation of nine new Implementation Bodies, to cover justice, policing, social economy, energy, rural development, pollution control, mental health, communications and higher and further education.

McLaughlin played down suggestions that Labour`s recent decision to start admitting members in Northern Ireland might harm Sinn Fein electorally.

"Any involvement in the Labour Party will affect the unionist parties first and the SDLP second," he said.

"It will not affect Sinn Fein`s electoral base at all."

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: 
ANTRIM EAST 11/10/03 12:14 EST

This is the first installment of a constituency-by- constituency analysis of the parties and candidates in the up-coming Northern Ireland Assembly elections, to be held on November 26th.

Each of the 18 parliamentary constituencies will return 6 members by single transferable vote (STV) to sit in the Stormont Assembly, thus making up its 108 members.

The current make-up of the assembly is: Party - overall vote - overall % - seats won

Ulster Unionist Party 172,225 votes 21.28% 28 seats

SDLP 177,963 votes 21.99% 24 seats

Democratic Unionist Party 145,917 votes 18.03% 20 seats

Sinn Féin 142,858 votes 17.65% 18 seats

Alliance 52,636 votes 6.50% 6 seats

UKUP 36,541 votes 4.52% 5 seats

Ind Unionists 24,339 votes 3.00% 3 seats

PUP 20,634 votes 2.55% 2 seats

Womens Coalition 13,019 votes 1.61% 2 seats 
 Following is a guide to the abbreviations used in this series for parties in Northern Ireland:

Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - AP

Community and Environmental Conservation Campaign - CECC

Conservative Party - CON

Democratic Unionist Party - DUP

Green Party - GRN

Independent - IND

Independent Community - IC

Labour - LAB

Natural Law Party - NLP

Northern Ireland Women's Coalition - NIWC

Northern Ireland Unionist Party - NIUP

Pro-Agreement - PA

Progressive Unionist Party - PUP

Sinn Fein - SF

Social Democratic and Labour Party - SDLP

Socialist Environmental Alliance - SEA

Socialist Party - SP

Ulster Democratic Unionist Party - UDP (no longer exists)

Ulster Independence - UI

Ulster Independent Voice - UIV

Ulster Third Way - UTW

Ulster Unionist Party - UUP

United Kingdom Unionist Party - UKUP

United Unionist Coalition - UU COAL (formerly the UUAP)

Vote For Yourself Party - VFYP

Workers Party - WP

Antrim East analysis:

This constituency stretches along the coastal strip on the northern side of Belfast Lough and the western side of the North Channel. It takes in the whole of Larne and Carrickfergus district councils, and part of Newtownabbey district council, all of which are heavily unionist areas.

The member of parliament has been Roy Beggs (UUP) since East Antrim was created in 1983. The 1995 boundary changes removed only a few Newtownabbey wards from the constituency. 
 Sitting members of the Assembly:

Roy Beggs Jnr UUP Sean Neeson AP David Hilditch DUP Roger Hutchinson UKUP Ken Robinson UUP Danny O'Connor SDLP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote 
UUP - 2 - 10457 - 29.4% 
DUP - 1 - 7889 - 22.2 
AP - 1 - 7168 - 20.2 
UKUP - 1 - 2866 - 8.1 
SDLP - 1 - 2106 - 5.9 
IND - 1571 - 4.4 
PUP - 1432 - 4 SF - 746 - 2.1 
UDP - 596 - 1.7 PA - 424 - 1.2 
CON - 233 - 0.7 
NLP - 32 - 0.1 
 This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

John Hugh Anderson IND 
Roy Beggs UUP 
George Dawson DUP 
Stewart Dickson AP 
Andrew Robert Frew GRN 
Alan Greer CON 
David Hilditch DUP 
Carolyn Howarth PUP 
Roger Hutchinson IND 
Robert Lindsay Mason IND 
Roy McCune UUP 
Jack McKee IND 
Oliver McMullan SF 
Anne Monaghan NIWC 
Sean Neeson AP 
Daniel O'Connor SDLP 
Ken Robinson UUP 
Tom Robinson UKUP 
Sammy Wilson DUP

Results in Antrim East for the 1998 Assembly election were a surprise to many. On the first count it was clear that the UKUP had probably done well enough to take a seat, which in itself was surprising.

But as transfers continued, the SDLP candidate Danny O'Connor, who had started eighth, overtook candidates from first the UUP and then the DUP to take the final place, in an area where they have only one local councillor, by 49 votes, the closest margin of the election.

The vulnerable seats here are those of the two weakest parties. The UKUP seat, like its successful candidate in 1998, will probably end up with the DUP.

11/10/03 09:34 EST

SINN FEIN WILL CLAIM TOP POST, SAYS McGUINNESS

Sinn Féin will occupy either the First or Deputy First Minister's post in the next power-sharing government at Stormont, Mr.. Martin McGuinness claimed tonight.

As Northern Ireland's politicians embarked on another week of campaigning for the November 26th Assembly Election, the Mid Ulster MP predicted his party would overtake the SDLP in the Assembly.

He also forecast the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists would not emerge the largest unionist party.

"Coming out of the last Assembly we had 18 seats," McGuinness said. "We expect to increase dramatically on that this time around and I think there is a real sense in the community and wider afield that that is most definitely going to happen.  That will effectively put us, as the largest nationalist party, in the running for the position of First and Deputy First Minister."

McGuinness urged supporters to frustrate parties opposed to the Belfast Agreement by voting first for Sinn Féin candidates and then transferring to other pro-Agreement parties in the proportional representation election.

He continued: "I will tell you my prediction. The DUP aren't going to come out on top.  I think there is no doubt that the DUP is going to increase its representation but I don't know how it is going to increase its representation in a fashion that can destroy the peace process or the full and faithful implementation of the Good Friday Agreement."

Democratic Unionist MP Gregory Campbell said Mr.. McGuinness's comments and recent SDLP attacks on his party showed nationalists were worried about the prospect of the DUP overtaking Mr.. Trimble's Ulster Unionists.

"Martin McGuinness and (SDLP leader) Mark Durkan's recent comments seem to bear out what we are hearing on the doorsteps - that there's a good vote for the DUP," the East Derry MP said.

"There is so much disillusionment with the Ulster Unionists, voters want a new hand on the unionist tiller."

Ulster Unionist leader Mr.. Trimble was heckled by a group of three women and two men as he canvassed for the party's West Belfast Assembly candidate Mr.. Chris McGimpsey on the loyalist Shankill Road.

After he was accused of being "a traitor" to unionism and was told to "go look for votes on the (nationalist) Falls Road," the Upper Bann MP shrugged off the criticism.

"I got a warm reception from local people," he said.

Mr.. Trimble said he was actually encouraged from the feedback he was receiving from voters.

During campaigning in Derry, SDLP leader Mark Durkan called for 2,000 civil service jobs to be moved away from Belfast to boost the economy of other towns and cities in Northern Ireland.

The Foyle Assembly candidate also vowed his party would target investment in areas of high unemployment, remove all cross border trading imperatives and expand rural transport initiatives.

In another attack on the DUP, he added: "We need to stand against those whose agenda is to destroy the Agreement. This means that the DUP and the other No men must be stopped."

11/02/03 13:38 EST

DEVOLUTION MEANS ALL-IRELAND AGENDA SAYS ADAMS

Hardline unionists must accept an all-Ireland agenda if they want to see a return of devolved government, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said last night.

Adams, speaking after meeting US Special Envoy to Northern Ireland Mr.. Richard Haass in New York, said efforts to restore the power sharing institutions must go ahead urgently after the November 26th elections.

With the possibility of Reverend Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists polling strongly,  Adams said they would have to accept the all-Ireland nature of the Agreement.

The DUP has called on a re-negotiation of the Agreement after the elections take place.

"The DUP like all the other parties in the election has to face up to the reality that not only is the Good Friday Agreement an international treaty between two governments that cannot be re-negotiated but if they want a devolved administration the price they have to pay is it be in an all-Ireland infrastructure," he said.

In other news today, the Social Democratic and Labour Party today called on the British and Irish governments to back down from a 'whispering campaign' against the head of the International Decommissioning Body, General John de Chastelain.

The call by the party`s policing spokesman, Alex Attwood, followed reports in a Sunday newspaper that London and Dublin were questioning the value of the body which has cost more than £6.5 million since its inception five years ago.

Their reported unhappiness stems from General de Chastelain`s appearance before the media 12 days ago when he gave a low key report on the IRA`s third act of decommissioning.

Attwood said the report was clearly an attempt to make the general a scapegoat for the failure of the carefully choreographed process.

"It`s clear that elements in the two governments, as well as some of the political parties, are trying to undermine and question General de Chastelain`s work. The general is not to blame for the farce of two weeks ago when the deal collapsed," he said.

"That is the fault of the gang of four - the two governments and the problem parties, Sinn Fein and the UUP -  and their fault alone.  General de Chastelain was the only honest man in last fortnight`s choreography and the only one to emerge with any credibility at the end of it."

He added: "Tony Blair needs to realize that the public have no confidence in him on weapons in Ireland, no more than they do in his handling of weapons in Iraq.  General de Chastelain is the only man with legitimacy under the agreement and credibility in the eyes of the public on weapons. The whispering campaign against him must end."

11/04/03 09:02 EST

ADAMS ASKS VOTERS TO BACK SINN FEIN VISION

Sinn Fein is asking voters to endorse its peace strategy and vision for a united Ireland, party president Gerry Adams said today.

 The West Belfast MP was unwilling to be drawn on the Ulster Unionists` ten point charter which includes a demand that paramilitary acts of completion must take place before Sinn Fein could participate in government.

Adams responded coolly to the UUP`s move. "I haven`t seen that but our task is to deal with the Sinn  Fein platform - not the platform of any other party," he said.

"Essentially what we have is a vision for a peaceful, prosperous and a united Ireland.  We also in the short term and the immediate term want to anchor the peace process and see delivery of the Good Friday Agreement.  So we are asking people to validate that. We have taken risks.  We want people to be part of a sustainable process of change and we are asking them to vote for the only people who can bring that about."

Adams said his party was not going to take any votes for granted in the campaign. "The people have a choice. We are asking them to vote for sustainable change," the West Belfast candidate said.

"Sinn Fein is looking for the votes of every single person who wants to be part of the historic task of building a new future for all our people."

Adams joined eight other Sinn Fein candidates handing in their nomination papers for the Belfast constituencies.  Among those who accompanied him were South Belfast candidate Alex Maskey and North Belfast candidate Gerry Kelly.

11/11/03 14:53 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: ANTRIM SOUTH

This constituency takes in the largely rural Antrim district council and parts of the more suburban Newtownabbey district council.

The member of parliament is David Burnside (UUP), who defeated the DUP's William McCrea in the 2001 election; McCrea had held the seat for less than nine months, having won it in a September 2000 by-election held after the death of Clifford Forsythe (UUP), who had represented the constituency since it was revised in 1983. It was almost untouched in the latest round of changes.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Jim Wilson UUP  Wilson Clyde DUP  Donovan McClelland SDLP  Norman Boyd UKUP  Duncan Shipley-Dalton UUP  David Ford AP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

UUP - 2 - 13175 - 29.9 
DUP - 1 - 8850 - 20.1 
SDLP - 1 - 7783 - 17.7 
UKUP - 1 - 4360 - 9.9 
AP - 1 - 3778 - 8.6 
SF - 3226 - 7.3 
PUP - 1546 - 3.5 
NIWC - 1108 - 2.5 
LAB - 137 - 0.3 
NLP - 28 - 0.1

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Norman Boyd NIUP 
Thomas Burns SDLP 
David Burnside UUP 
Wilson Clyde DUP 
Adrian Cochrane Watson UUP 
Joan Cosgrove NIWC 
Jason Docherty CON 
David Ford AP 
Paul Girvan DUP 
Donovan McClelland SDLP 
Martin Meehan SF 
John Smyth DUP 
Kenneth Wilkinson PUP 
Jim Wilson UUP

Alliance leader David Ford is thought to be in difficulty in this constituency which may pave the way for an extra SDLP seat or, at the outside, give Sinn Féin's Martin Meehan a chance.

The UUP's Duncan Shipley Dalton has resigned from party politics and anti-agreement UUP candidate David Burnside is likely to pick up a seat.

The UKUP seat will fall to the DUP for sure; the UUP will keep both their seats, and the SDLP's seat is safe.

prediction:  DUP 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1

(1998 Assembly result: DUP 1, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1)

11/12/03 07:09 EST

MALLON CALLS FOR UNIONISTS TO VOTE SDLP

Ian Paisley's hardline DUP could destroy the peace process unless unionists vote for nationalist candidates in Northern Ireland's elections, it was claimed today.

 Former SDLP deputy leader Seamus Mallon warned the Good Friday Agreement`s survival may depend on just half a dozen seats.

He urged unionists who support the five-year-old accord to put its future before traditional party allegiances.

The Newry and Armagh MP declared: "I ask unashamedly pro- Agreement unionists in those areas to transfer to SDLP candidates so we can create an executive and make political progress.  Give the DUP a damn sore jaw and a very bloody nose."

The fiercely anti-agreement DUP are bidding to take over as the largest unionist party in the Stormont Assembly after the Nov. 26 poll.

Even though its sights have been on David Trimble`s Ulster Unionists while the SDLP is under intense pressure from Sinn Fein, Mallon claimed another desperate struggle was raging across the divide.

The DUP has pledged to renegotiate the Good Friday deal, but the veteran SDLP representative, who is standing down at this election, claimed its sole aim was to smash 30 years of political effort in Northern Ireland.

Final seat battles between Mr.. Paisley`s party and the SDLP in a handful of constituencies will be crucial to the whole outcome of the elections, he predicted.

"The DUP are threatening to smash what people of Ireland north and south supported and which took 30-odd years to build, that took a lifetime of suffering."

He appealed to both sides to consider crossing traditional barriers when they got into the polling booths.

"I again ask people in nationalist communities in these circumstances and in these constituencies to transfer to pro-agreement unionist parties.  That`s the message that`s going to continue right through the rest of this campaign and I believe that could be the turning point.  There will be people in the nationalist community who say `I couldn`t vote unionist`, and unionists who say `I couldn`t vote for the SDLP no matter what`."

"I know how you feel. But which is greater, my feelings and yours or the future of this agreement?  This is one that could turn the axis in relation to what this election has asked and is asking of people."

Sinn Fein`s Alex Maskey said Mallon`s comments smacked of desperation.

The South Belfast Assembly candidate responded: "This is not about defending the Good Friday Agreement.  People know who have taken the risks and initiatives to defend the Agreement and who has delivered.  This is about the SDLP desperately trying to defend their vote by conning people into believing it is a choice between them and the Democratic Unionist Party. It isn`t."

11/12/03 07:21 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: BELFAST EAST

his constituency takes in the eastern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Castlereagh District Council. The member of parliament has been Peter Robinson (DUP deputy leader) since he defeated Bill Craig, the former Vanguard leader who had then joined the UUP, in 1979. The constituency shrank somewhat in 1983 but was then expanded outwards again in 1995.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Peter Robinson DUP 
Lord Alderdice AP 
Reg Empey UUP 
David Ervine PUP 
Ian Adams on UUP 
Sammy Wilson DUP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

DUP - 2 - 12225 - 30.9 
UUP - 2 - 9620 - 24.3 
AP - 1 - 7144 - 18 
PUP - 1 - 5385 - 13.6 
UKUP - 1362 - 3.4 
SDLP - 1025 - 2.6 
SF - 917 - 2.3 
NIWC - 711 - 1.8 
UDP - 516 - 1.3

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Joseph Bell WP 
Thomas Black SP 
Michael Copeland UUP 
Terence Dick CON 
Sir Reg Empey UUP 
David Ervine PUP 
Naomi Long AP 
John McBlain IND 
Robin Newton DUP 
Joseph O'Donnell SF 
Peter Robinson DUP 
Jim Rodgers UUP 
Harry Toan DUP 
Leo Van Es SDLP 
George Weiss VFYP

Analysis:

The two vulnerable seats in this constituency would appear to be Adamson's UUP seat and Ervine's seat for the PUP. The Westminster result is not encouraging for Adamson; the local government result discouraging for Ervine.

In either case the likely winner would be a third DUP candidate.

Prediction: DUP (3) UUP (1) PUP (1) Alliance (1) = DUP gain (1) UUP loss (1)

No. 12, 2003

Elections

The Secretary of State Paul Murphy yesterday said it was important that everyone exercises their right to vote in the upcoming election.  He was speaking during a visit to the Electoral Office in Belfast - Irish News P13.

The DUP launched its glossy manifesto yesterday with an apocalyptic statement by party leader Ian Paisley that this election was "Ulster's date with destiny."  The claim was greeted with disdain by other parties, UUP leader David Trimble describing the DUP campaign as "the biggest electoral fraud ever foisted on the unionist people," and the SDLP dismissing the brochure as "pulp fiction" - News Letter Ps 8, 9, Irish News P9, Irish Times P9, Irish Independent P18.

DUP leader Ian Paisley won't be in the panel with other political leaders in a BBC Question Time debate tomorrow night.  Instead the DUP representative will be General Secretary Nigel Dodds - Irish News P9.

Dialogue between Sinn Fein and the UUP "is the basis for future progress," mid-Ulster MP Martin McGuinness has said.  He called for relations between both parties to be built upon after the election and stated that republicans had taken "real risks" for peace - Irish News P11.

SDLP leader Mark Durkan pledged yesterday that he will secure an acute hospital in Tyrone after the election - Irish News P11, Irish Times P9.

In its constituency notebook the Irish News P10 features Fermanagh/South Tyrone.

The Greens yesterday accused other parties of lacking vision and imagination in their economic policies - News Letter Ps 8, 9.

A fierce row between pro-Agreement parties has been provoked by an SDLP election advert which UUP Policing Board member Fred Cobain has described as "pure naked sectarianism."  In the advertisement large red 'Xs' were placed over pictures of former Chief Constable Sir Ronnie Flanagan and a Special Branch top secret dossier - News Letter Ps 8, 9, Irish Times P9.

Writing in the Irish Independent P18 Brendan Keenan, group business editor, describes how economic issues are not a factor in the Assembly election.

In his Wednesday column Brian Feeney writes about using the PR system to its full advantage - Irish News P2.

Farmers want to see certainty from politicians - News Letter Ps 24, 25.

In its constituency countdown the News Letter Ps 18, 19, 20 profiles West Tyrone.

Irish Times P9 features South Down in its constituency profile.

The Strangford constituency is featured in the Irish Independent P18.

Program:    DTR News 
Date and time:    12.11.03 
Subject:    Election manifesto launch

The leader of the Ulster Unionist Party has said the real enemy for his party could be apathy amongst its electorate.  David Trimble was speaking at the launch of his party's election manifesto in Belfast.

EAMON MALLIE

The Ulster Unionist Party manifesto is probably the most forward looking manifesto that any unionist party has put before the electorate to date. Mr.. Trimble underscored what he saw as the improvement in the quality of life in the past ten years in Northern Ireland.  He said the talks with republicans on putting arms beyond use will come back on track after the elections.  He then had this message for loyalist paramilitaries.

DAVID TRIMBLE

That we have to move, yes, because of their electoral success there is a lot of focus on republican paramilitaries, but there is a similar focus too in our minds on loyalist paramilitaries.  And those involved in loyalist paramilitarism better bear in mind how exposed they will be if there are acts of completion from republicans, but not from loyalists.

EAMON MALLIE

In conclusion the Ulster Unionist Party leader urged people to turn out to vote for his party in the forthcoming elections.

Program:    GMU 
Date & Time:    12.11.03   8.20 
Subject:    ELECTIONS

LINDA REA

A new opinion poll suggests that more than three quarters of voters here are very likely to take part in this month's Assembly Elections.  The poll due to be published in today's Belfast Telegraph also indicates sharp differences between both communities about whether the Government was right to call the election.  Our political editor Mark Devenport reports.

MARK DEVENPORT

Politicians from across the spectrum will be keen to learn the results of today's Belfast Telegraph poll, the first snapshot of opinion since the Assembly Election campaign began.  Whilst the headline results about which party voters support haven't yet been disclosed, the answers to some questions have been revealed.

Questioned about voter apathy, 53% of people said they were certain to vote in this month's election, whilst another 29% said they were very likely to vote.  More than 70% of Catholics told the pollsters the Government was right to go ahead with the election, but only 40% of Protestants agreed, 26% of Protestants said the elections shouldn't have taken place until the Agreement had been re-negotiated, and 23% said they should have been postponed.  The survey was conducted last weekend by the market research company Millwood Brown.

11/12/03 10:27 EST

POLL INDICATES ELECTIONS WILL BE CLOSE

Northern Ireland is facing one of its tightest elections in recent history according to the first major opinion poll of the campaign.

The poll carried out by research group Millward Brown on behalf of the Belfast Telegraph shows the Ulster Unionist Party six points ahead of rival unionist party the DUP.

With two weeks to go in the campaign, the SDLP is shown to be leading Sinn Féin by two percentage points. However, the four main parties all remain within striking distance of each other and with the transfer of votes the final outcome remains uncertain.

On the basis of first preference votes, the Ulster Unionists lead the way on 26 per cent with the DUP on 20 per cent, SDLP on 22 per cent and Sinn Fein on 20 per cent.

Traditionally Sinn Féin and the DUP record lower support in surveys as pollsters are said to hide their support for more these two parties.

Millward Brown say its findings suggest: "The final results will be very close indeed but that the SDLP will retain its position as the premier nationalist party and the UUP as the premier unionist party."

The poll also asked respondents who they thought would occupy the position of First Minister after the election. Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble came out on top with 22 per cent of the vote. But significantly Sinn Féin president Mr.. Gerry Adamscame in one percentage point higher than SDLP leader Mark Durkan on 15 per cent.

Among Catholic voters, the poll found Adams was preferred to Mr.. Durkan by 33 per cent to 31 per cent.

The survey, which involved a sample of 1,058 adults interviewed at 50 locations across Northern Ireland, was conducted on Nov. 6-8.

Meanwhile, David Trimble has said today that "begrudgers and those clinging to the violence of the past" must not be allowed to wreck the future of Northern Ireland.

The party's manifesto, published in Belfast today in advance of the Assembly Elections, said the party wanted to see the Assembly restored, but only when republicans have "dealt conclusively with the issues of decommissioning, continued paramilitary activity and the effective winding-up of their private army."

In a 10-point charter, the UUP says its candidates will "hold firmly" to the requirement for "acts of completion" and the effective winding up of paramilitary organizations before Sinn Fein can participate in a Northern Ireland executive.

The party's pledges for the next Assembly include an integrated primary healthcare center in every major population area, the replacement of all mobile classrooms with permanent accommodation within five years and a radical, pro-active community relations policy.

Trimble expressed concern about the effects of "voter apathy" on the forthcoming elections.

Speaking on the publication of the manifesto today, he said: "We are determined to make Northern Ireland a success but there is a problem and that is people not voting.  The worry we have in this election is if there is apathy or people do not turn out. So we are saying there can be progress, there can be success but it requires you to come out and exercise your franchise and to do it in such a way as to strengthen those who are working for a better future."

The leader was joined by former Stormont ministers Michael McGimpsey, Sir Reg Empey and Mr.. Dermot Nesbitt. He said achievements from devolution included the lowest unemployment rates "for decades," higher spending on health, free transport for the elderly and the successful tackling of the foot-and-mouth outbreak.

Also today, the Northern Ireland secretary of state has said that the electorate can use their votes to move the political process forward.

Paul Murphy urged everyone to play their part and exercise their democratic right to vote in the assembly election on 26 November.

He was speaking during a visit to the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland in Belfast.

"This is an important election for the future of Northern Ireland. I would encourage everyone entitled to vote to make full use of their democratic mandate," he said.

"The future of Northern Ireland will be shaped by the electorate. While no-one underestimates the political difficulties that exist, everyone can use their vote to move things forward.  I would encourage people to be positive and contribute to the future by making the effort to turn out and vote."

Also today, Sinn Féin Vice President Pat Doherty said Sinn Féin had made significant progress in advancing the all- Ireland agenda.

"Today we are setting out our ten point plan for Irish Unity. All-Ireland approaches and institutions are now universally accepted, even by the DUP. That in itself is significant progress. Sinn Féin intends to build on this through our Ten Point Plan for Irish Unity."

Doherty said that the all-Ireland political institutions exist "because of the tenacity, determination and the substantial growth in support for Sinn Féin."

"Sinn Féin is now the third largest party on the island and the largest nationalist party in the north.  Our political strength, our political representation across the island, and our clear focus on Irish Unity secured the establishment of the All-Ireland Ministerial Council and the all-Ireland institutional architecture of the Good Friday Agreement.  We have a roadmap for Irish Unity and the Ten Point Plan we are setting out today will take the United Ireland agenda decisively forward after this election."

Sinn Féin's 10 Point Plan for Irish Unity is

-A Green Paper for Irish Unity in the Dail

-Attendance in the Dail for the 18 Westminster MPs

-Northern representation in the Seanad

-Votes for citizens in the six counties in Presidential elections

-Building the work of the All-Ireland Ministerial Council

-An All-Ireland Consultative Forum

-An All-Ireland Charter of Rights

-Integrated services and infrastructure along the border

-Increased action, co-operation and harmonization in Heath, Education and other key departments

-Extension of the Irish passport scheme across the six counties

11/12/03 14:29 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003:  BELFAST NORTH

This constituency takes in the northern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Newtownabbey District Council.

The member of parliament has been Nigel Dodds since the 2001 election; he defeated Cecil Walker (UUP) who had represented North Belfast since 1983. The constituency was expanded a little in 1983 and rather more in 1995.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Nigel Dodds DUP 
Alban Maginness SDLP 
Gerry Kelly SF 
Billy Hutchinson PUP 
Fraser Agnew UUAP 
Fred Cobain UUP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

SF - 1 - 8775 - 21.3 
DUP - 1 - 8764 - 21.3 
SDLP - 1 - 8661 - 21.1 
UUP - 1 - 4479 - 10.9 
PUP - 1 - 3751 - 9.1 
UUAP - 1 - 2976 - 7.2 
AP - 1267 - 3.1 
UDP - 911 - 2.2 
UKUP - 748 - 1.8

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Fraser Agnew UUCOAL 
Eliz Byrne McCullough NIWC 
Fred Cobain UUP 
Pat Convery SDLP 
Marcella Delaney WP 
Nigel Dodds DUP 
Peter Emerson GRN 
John Leo Gallagher VFYP 
Majorie Hawkins AP 
William Hutchinson PUP 
Gerry Kelly SF 
Alban Maginness SDLP 
Nelson McCausland DUP 
Raymond McCord IND 
Frank McCoubrey IND 
Kathy Stanton SF

Analysis:

North Belfast is a constituency in transition. And one of the big changes involves the fortunes of the Ulster Unionist Party.

It dominated the constituency for years until the last general election when its sitting MP of almost 20 years was toppled. Cecil Walker's unseating by the DUP's Nigel Dodds showed a dramatic collapse in the Ulster Unionist vote. At the last assembly election the UUP fielded two candidates.

This time only Fred Cobain, who was elected last time, is in the field and he is viewed as vulnerable.  North Belfast is a fractious constituency, with republicans, loyalists, nationalists and unionists settled there. And the main parties are preparing to carve it up. There are five unionists in the field. Two of them are from the DUP which is confident Mr.. Dodds can easily win a seat and help deliver one for his running mate Nelson McCausland.

Given the population profile here, three unionists could get elected. If the DUP do take two of the three seats, then Mr.. Cobain will be battling with two other outgoing unionist MLAs for a seat - the loyalist PUP's Billy Hutchinson, and Fraser Agnew, a former Ulster Unionist who stood as an anti-agreement independent last time.

On the nationalist side, there are potentially three seats. Sinn Fein and the SDLP are sure to win at least one each, with Gerry Kelly and Alban Maginness the favorites to be elected. Both have running mates.

Kelly is hoping to assist Kathy Staunton to a seat, while  Maginness is hoping to win enough support to ensure Pat Convery is elected. Based on previous voting trends, Sinn Fein is seen as the favorite to take a second seat.

Prediction: SF (2) DUP (2) SDLP (1) PUP (1) = SF gain (1) DUP gain (1) UUP loss (1)

11/13/03 10:33 EST

BACK THE SDLP TO SAFEGUARD GFA, SAYS DURKAN

Nationalist SDLP leader Mark Durkan tonight appealed to voters to safeguard the Good Friday Agreement by backing his party in Northern Ireland's Assembly Election.

 Durkan also claimed that the SDLP rejected an assembly election voting pact with Sinn Fein. The SDLP leader said he had received an informal approach from Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams about a nationalist poll deal.

At the launch of his party`s manifesto in Belfast, the Foyle Assembly candidate accused David Trimble`s Ulster Unionists of running a ``DUP lite`` campaign at times.

He also alleged Sinn Fein had in the past actively discouraged voters from transferring votes to the SDLP under the proportional representation system being used for the election.

Mr.. Durkan argued: "The real battleground in this election is between those who most want to protect the Agreement and those who most want to wreck it, between the totally pro- Agreement SDLP and the totally anti-Agreement DUP.  How people vote - and how they transfer - will decide the course we take; whether we step into the future or watch the clock go back, whether we keep narrowing the gap or watch the gap grow bigger."

With the make up of the next Assembly hinging on how votes are transferred between parties on the ballot paper, Mr.. Durkan resisted making a specific recommendation to his supporters about who they should back after giving first preference votes to the SDLP.

His party`s 33 page manifesto demanded:

:: A referendum on Irish unity within the lifetime of the next Assembly.

:: The transfer of policing and justice powers to one department at Stormont within two years.

:: An end to the use of plastic bullets.

:: The creation of an all-Ireland Criminal Assets Bureau.

:: The establishment of a new all-Ireland food marketing body and completion of the all-Ireland animal health strategy.

 However, the Democratic Unionist Party's Nigel Dodds said the SDLP's manifesto "with its overt all-Ireland agenda makes a mockery of their request for unionists' transfers."

"It is, to adapt a phrase, 'Sinn Fein lite'. It is a green- print for a united Ireland by stealth," said Mr.. Dodds.

"Having received a significant blow with the census figures last year, they can see that the only route to a united Ireland is through greater harmonization. That is the agenda they have proposed and the agenda which must be resisted."

Also on the campaign trail today, Sinn Fein's Bairbre de Brun said it was her party's belief "that we will be in a position to achieve either the first or deputy first minister."

"In addition to this we want to continue the work that we started in education and health and will be seeking these departments once again in the new assembly."

"Other parties did not see education and health as priorities. We did. This remains the case," said the former Health minister.

11/13/03 13:11 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: BELFAST SOUTH

This constituency takes in the southern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Castlereagh District Council. The member of parliament has been Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) since a 1982 by-election caused by the IRA assassination of the previous incumbent. The constituency was expanded a little in 1983 and rather more in 1995.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Alasdair McDonnell SDLP 
Michael McGimpsey UUP 
Monica McWilliams NIWC 
Carmel Hanna SDLP 
Esmond Birnie UUP 
Mark Robinson DUP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

UUP - 2 - 9533 - 30.6 
SDLP - 2 - 8838 - 28.3 
DUP - 1 - 5321 - 17.1 
AP - 4086 - 13.1 
NIWC - 1 - 3912 - 12.5 
SF - 2605 - 8.4 
PUP - 2112 - 6.8 
UDP - 1745 - 5.6 
UKUP - 1496 - 4.8 
IND - 437 - 1.4

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

James Barbour SP 
Esmond Birnie UUP
Tom Ekin AP 
Carmel Hanna SDLP 
 John Hiddleston UUP 
Roger Lomas CON 
Patrick Lynn WP 
Alex Maskey SF 
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP 
Michael McGimpsey UUP 
Monica McWilliams NIWC 
Thomas Morrow PUP 
Ruth Patterson DUP 
Geraldine Rice AP 
Mark Robinson DUP 
Lindsay Michelle 
Steven VFYP 
John Wright GRN

Analysis:

Mention South Belfast and images of leafy lanes on the affluent Malone Road come to mind. But the constituency also contains marginalised areas like the nationalist Markets and lower Ormeau and loyalist Taughmonagh - candidates here will have to appeal to a broad spectrum.

The sitting Westminster MP is hardline anti-Agreement Ulster Unionist, the Reverend Martin Smyth, who is not standing. But ironically the constituency returns two pro- Agreement members of his party, staunch Trimblites Michael McGimpsey and Esmond Birnie.

They are strong favorites again - the third Ulster Unionist candidate is the anti-Agreement John Hiddleston. Out-going DUP MLA, the low profile Mark Robinson, is also expected to return.

Dr Alasdair McDonnell topped the poll for the SDLP last time around - he's thought to be safe again. That would leave two seats to be fought over by the other SDLP candidate Carmel Hanna; Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition; the Alliance Party who are fielding two candidates, Tom Ekin and Geraldine Rice; and Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey, who has been brought in from his heartland of west Belfast to try to take a seat.

It's a risky strategy - he trailed both Alasdair McDonnell and Monica McWilliams in the 2001 general election with 2,894 votes. But the assembly election, with its single transferable vote system, is very different and Mr.. Maskey's high profile year as Lord Mayor of Belfast will help to make the SDLP nervous.

Prediction: SDLP (2) UUP (2) SF (1) DUP (1) = SF gain (1)

11/17/03 14:05 EST ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: FOYLE

This constituency is exactly equivalent to Derry District Council. The MP has been John Hume (SDLP leader) since it was created in 1983. It originally included parts of Strabane District Council but lost them to the new West Tyrone constituency in the 1995 revision.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

John Hume SDLP 
William Hay DUP 
Mitchel McLaughlin SF 
Mark Durkan SDLP 
John Tierney SDLP 
Mary Nelis SF

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

SDLP - 3 - 23342 - 47.8% 
SF - 2 - 12696 - 26% 
DUP - 1 - 6112 - 12.5% 
UUP - 4669 - 9.6% 
AP - 1058 - 2.2% 
LAB - 345 - 0.7% 
PUP -  287 - 0.6% 
 This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Mary Bradley SDLP 
Alan Martyn Castle AP 
Annie Courtney IND 
Gerard Diver SDLP 
Mark Durkan SDLP 
Mary Hamilton UUP 
William Hay DUP 
Danny McBrearty IND 
Eamonn McCann SEA 
Raymond McCartney SF 
Mitchel McLaughlin SF 
Mary Nelis SF 
Pat Ramsey SDLP

The Foyle constituency, which takes in Derry city, is a traditional stronghold of the nationalist SDLP. In 1998, they had three assembly members elected here, compared to Sinn Fein's two. The DUP took the remaining seat.

However, this November the SDLP could be weakened by the absence of its founder, John Hume. Mr.. Hume's successor, Mark Durkan, tried to strengthen the SDLP's appeal to younger voters by replacing the outgoing assembly member Annie Courtney with the up-and-coming councillor Gerard Diver.

An angry Courtney pledged to stand as an independent. She could rob the SDLP of some support in the Waterside and rural areas, where she will be campaigning head-to-head with Gerard Diver. On the other side of the Foyle, councillors Mary Bradley and Pat Ramsey complete the SDLP ticket.

Sinn Fein have a fairly strong team with the IRA veteran Raymond McCartney campaigning alongside the party chairman, Mitchel McLaughlin, and the other outgoing assembly member Mary Nelis.

As a former leader of IRA prisoners in the Maze jail, Mr.. McCartney is well known throughout Derry. Sinn Fein have a potential dilemma with their vote management. Should they spread their votes to try to get an extra seat, or do they put all their efforts into promoting Mitchel McLaughlin in the hope that he tops the poll ahead of Mark Durkan?

One complicating factor in all of this could be the candidacy of the civil rights veteran Eamonn McCann. As a newspaper columnist and broadcaster, he may attract support for his Socialist and Environmental Alliance.

The unionist vote here is gradually falling, but there will be a unionist seat here for some elections to come. So the DUP's Willie Hay should be safe again.

Prediction: SDLP (3) SF (2)DUP(1)=no change

Nov. 18, 2003

Elections

The father of a Co Armagh man, Gareth O'Connor, believed to have been abducted and murdered by the IRA has called for nationalists to 'think hard' before voting for Sinn Fein, Irish News (p1).

Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams canceled his election campaigning yesterday after his father died in hospital, Irish News (p5), Daily Telegraph (p2), Mirror (p2), News Letter (p9), Irish Times (p8), Irish Independent (p10).

Sinn Fein's election manifesto yesterday highlighted the equality agenda as being central to the building of a new Ireland.  Martin McGuinness said the party wanted to build dialogue with unionism, Irish News (p8), Irish Independent (p10), Mirror (p2).  Writing in the News Letter (p8), political correspondent Ciaran McKeown comments that 'Irish unity fantasies allow unionists to unite'.  Senior Ulster Unionist David McNarry described Sinn Fein hopes for a united Ireland by 2016 as a 'republican pipe-dream'.

The Irish Times (p8) reports that Martin McGuinness is 'certain' that Sinn Fein will defeat the SDLP.

Former SDLP leader John Hume yesterday accused Sinn Fein of jeopardizing the Good Friday Agreement in a major row over the transfer of votes between the two nationalist parties, Irish Independent (p10).

'UUP calls for Belfast accord to be democratized', Irish Times (p8).  The paper also reports on the North Down constituency and comments that 'unionists prepare for battle of gold coast'.  In its editorial the Irish Times (p17) comments that 'the most significant development, so far, has been the decision of Mr.. Trimble to actively promote the benefits of the Agreement'.  Apathy amongst voters is also a matter of concern.  Writing in the Mirror (p24) David McNarry comments that the DUP 'is running scared'.

Irish Independent (p10) report on North Down.  'Key constituency where nationalists need not apply'.

The Irish Independent (p10) reports on the DUP's campaign, 'prophet of doom with only the wilderness to offer'.

Writing in the Financial Times (p6) John Murray Brown 'finds the Ulster Unionist leader talking up peace achievements and stressing that republicans are capable of reform.'

Report on the Upper Bann constituency 'the gospel singer and UUP leader do battle'.  As this is 'Trimble country' the DUP are determined to embarrass the Ulster Unionists here more than in any other constituency in the Assembly elections, Irish News (p9).

Writing in the News Letter (p18,19) Ross Smith comments that the Upper Bann constituency has had its own unique problems with Drumcree.  'As that problem fades, racism has surfaced as perhaps a more insidious challenge. But there are also signs of hope.'

The News Letter (p18,19) reports on each of the candidates standing in the Upper Bann constituency.  Community worker Hugh Casey says elderly people in Upper Bann need to be made to feel safe in their homes.

Geoff Hill meets Alex Maskey and Bairbre de Brun and comments that 'Maskey gives supporters the common touch', News Letter (p20).

News Letter (p21) reports that DUP politician Nelson McCausland was mistaken for Gerry Adams.

The News Letter editorial (p8) comments that voters want action against criminals.

Letter in the Irish News (p7) from SDLP Balmoral member 'anti-Catholic venom makes big Ian look like a candidate for sainthood'.

Writing in the Irish News (p2) Breidge Gadd comments 'the problem-solving party will get votes.²

Program:    BBC Newsline Lunchtime  Mark Devenport 
Date & Time:    18.11.03 
Subject:    DUP and UUP confrontation

SARAH TRAVERS

Mark, election fever really taking hold and if we look at that confrontation this morning between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists, both would probably be claiming victory now?

MARK DEVENPORT

No doubt, I mean, it may galvanize interest out there in what has so far been a fairly formulaic election campaign.  No absolute knock out blows there, but if I had to be a judge in a boxing match I might give it to the Ulster Unionists on points.

The reason being, that if the DUP hadn't brought their battle bus outside Ulster Unionist headquarters, all the focus today would have been on this mini manifesto put out by Jeffrey Donaldson and his allies and essentially that's a story about Ulster Unionist division instead, because of what has happened, we're back with this toe to toe battle between the two leaders.

SARAH TRAVERS

And not long to go now, Mark, are we likely to see more of this?

MARK DEVENPORT

Well we shall see and we're, kind of, just over a week away now from polling day and no doubt if we see more like that maybe the voters will take notice and we won't see the kind of apathy that some have been predicting.

11/18/03 11:08 EST

UNIONISTS IN PUBLIC SLAGGING MATCH

The leaderships of Northern Ireland's two main unionist parties have been involved in a bitter street confrontation during election campaigning.

UUP leader David Trimble and DUP counterpart Ian Paisley were present at the incident in east Belfast today. The bitter confrontation outside Ulster Unionist  headquarters in Belfast stopped short of punches being thrown but the head-to-head clash plunged relations to an all-time low.

Insults were traded and fingers jabbed as Mr.. Paisley`s deputy, Peter Robinson launched a ferocious attack on the former Stormont First Minister, calling him "yesterday`s man.²  The argument flared outside  Trimble`s headquarters where the Democratic Unionists unveiled a new campaign poster.

Both sides came face to face as the UUP leader attempted to disrupt the launch by accusing Paisley of running scared of a TV debate.

It signaled the start of a 10-minute slanging match in front of TV cameras confirming the depth of hostility between both sides.  Both sides engaged in a stand-off and attempted to shout each other down.

The DUP members said Mr.. Trimble was unable to campaign in Portadown, in his own Upper Bann constituency.  "You can't even walk in your own constituency," said Iris Robinson.

However, the UUP leader said he had canvassed in the County Armagh town.

The DUP members began shouting: "Where is Jeffrey?" - in reference to rebel UUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson."  Trimble replied: "Jeffrey agrees with our manifesto - he issued a statement to that effect today."

He accused Peter Robinson of shielding Paisley. However, Paisley denied he was "hiding.²  Both sides exchanged insults for up to 10 minutes before Mr.. Trimble was driven away.

The DUP members later left in the party's 'battle bus'.

At the weekend, the DUP dismissed a challenge for Paisley to participate in a television debate with Trimble.  Trimble had accused Paisley of "running away" from television studios during the Northern Ireland Assembly election campaign. Trimble said Paisley needed to state his position on being in government with Sinn Fein.

Meanwhile, SDLP leader Mark Durkan urged voters "not to give Ian Paisley his last hurrah."  "Give him his marching orders. Give your first preference to the SDLP," said Mr.. Durkan.

"Give your transfers to other pro-Agreement candidates to stop the anti-Agreement forces in their tracks.  And if you are giving your first preferences to other parties, I am asking you to give your transfers to the SDLP. As the strongest and clearest pro-Agreement party, people know that a preference for us is a genuine preference for the Agreement."

Also on the campaign trail, Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin said the issue of united Ireland was "an issue for the people."

"We have said that we will take this status quo that we disagree with and we will work it and we will work with you (unionists) to ensure that we deliver better social and economic experiences and realities in future for the people who live here. We will respect the fact that a majority exists in the present circumstances to retain the link with Britain... but when a majority emerges for a united Ireland - which it will - we would like to see the unionist community coming back and saying we respect that decision taken through a peaceful and democratic process," McLaughlin said.

11/19/03 08:21 EST

REBELS CALL FOR GREATER UNIONIST COOPERATION

There should be greater cooperation between unionist parties in any negotiations which follow this month's assembly vote, according to three rebel Ulster Unionists.

The call was made in a "statement on a post-election strategy" published by dissident MPs Jeffrey Donaldson, David Burnside and Martin Smyth today.

They are opposed to the Good Friday Agreement and David Trimble's leadership of the UUP.

The dissidents also said they would try to prevent Sinn Fein claiming key government ministries, including education and health.

They also pledged to veto the appointment of a Sinn Fein representative to any future ministry of policing and justice. Donaldson said the commitments were suggested to UUP leader David Trimble for inclusion in the Ulster Unionist manifesto, but were not included because it "had gone to the printers."

Sinn Fein's Conor Murphy criticized the dissidents' statement urging the exclusion of his party from ministries.

"Throughout this election campaign the DUP have focused on Sinn Fein and the obstacle that our agenda for change poses to their anti-Agreement project," he said.

"This morning the anti-Agreement faction of the UUP set out their rejectionist charter and stated that they see Sinn Fein as the primary obstacle to their attempts to re- negotiate and collapse the Good Friday Agreement."

He added: "The rejectionists know that a strong Sinn Fein vote will scupper their ambitions."

Also today, the SDLP's Alban Maginness said the election was becoming a choice between "defending the Agreement and turning the clock back."

"The DUP are beginning to recognize that their arrogant claim that the only deal that will work is one done with them will revolt democrats from all communities."

He added: "The DUP have over-reached themselves. The more strident their claims to lead unionism, the more repellent to pro-Agreement voters they become."

Progressive Unionist Party candidate Billy Hutchinson outlined the party's position "on one of the most vulnerable sections of society - the elderly."

The PUP has committed itself not to canvass door-to-door after 1800 GMT "in the interests of community safety.²  Meanwhile, Sinn Féin Policing spokesperson Gerry Kelly set out the party's policing agenda at a press conference in Belfast this morning.

The North Belfast MLA said Sinn Fein had been central to discussions relating to the future of policing in Ireland.

"Sinn Fein put Policing on the agenda of the negotiations in 1997 and we insisted that this issue be directly addressed in the Good Friday Agreement.  Sinn Fein continues to pursue the agenda of radical change. We have made it a central plank of successive negotiations. The approach of our negotiating team has delivered substantial improvements on policing," Kelly said.

He said Sinn Fein continued to engage with the British Government "to ensure that policing is democratically accountable and representative."

Kelly also called for an end to the police Special Branch.  "The corrosive position of the Special Branch at the core of the current policing arrangements has to end. There can be no part in a new beginning to policing for the 'force within a force' which has, as a matter of policy, been involved in the targeting and murder of citizens."

Nov. 19, 2003

Politics/elections

UU leader, David Trimble, engaged in a heated war of words with senior DUP figures after the anti-Agreement party took the election battle to Ulster Unionist Headquarters by unveiling their new campaign poster outside Cunningham House - Irish News P9.  See also Irish Times P9, Times P2, Irish Independent P11, Mirror P15.  Under the heading 'Trimble's mad claims Paisley' political correspondent Ciaran McKeown examines the fracas - News Letter Ps 8, 9.  The Conservative Party manifesto was launched yesterday - Irish News P10.

Unionists join in gutter row - Irish News editorial P6.

SDLP poster campaign at Belfast's Ormeau Road could be stopped as DOE chiefs decide if it is a potential road hazard - Irish News P1.

Darran McCann examines the likely election turnout - Irish News P6.

In a letter to the editor Danny Power, Sinn Fein Director of Elections, writes concerning Brid Rodgers' election claims on reunification - Irish News P7.

William Scholes writes that bread and butter issues could be returning to the forefront - Irish News P8.  East Antrim constituency is profiled - Irish News P8.  North Antrim - P9.  William Graham, political correspondent, writes that republicans and nationalists have described the list of commitments drawn up by rebel UUs as rejectionist - Irish News P9.  See also News Letter P8.  Trimble dismisses rebel UUP members' strategy - Irish Times P9.

Republican Sinn Fein has launched a leaflet campaign urging people to either boycott or spoil their votes - Irish News P10.

In its constituency countdown Fermanagh/South Tyrone is profiled - News Letter Ps 20, 21.  Geoff Hill profiles Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition - News Letter P22.

Gerry Moriarty joins Mark Durkan on the canvass in Derry - 'chasing crucial transfers from wherever' - Irish Times P9.  Gerry Moriarty profiles South Antrim constituency - Irish Times P9.  Simon Hoggart considers the pretense and protest in Ulster's bizarre election - Guardian P2.

11/19/03 11:03 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: MID ULSTER

This constituency is the western shore of Lough Neagh. It takes in the whole of Magherafelt and Cookstown district councils, and the Coalisland part of Dungannon district council.

The member of parliament has been Martin McGuinness (SF) since he defeated William McCrea (DUP) in 1997. The 1995 boundary changes were so substantial that it was only 30% the same constituency that McCrea had won in 1983.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Rev William McCrea DUP 
Martin McGuinness SF 
Denis Haughey SDLP 
Francie Molloy SF 
John Kelly SF 
Billy Armstrong UUP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

SF - 3 - 20305 - 40.8% 
SDLP - 1 - 11076 - 22.2% 
DUP - 1 - 10646 - 21.4% 
UUP - 1 - 6938 - 13.9% 
AP - 497 - 1% 
WP - 207 - 0.4% 
SP - 91 - 0.2%

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Billy Armstrong UUP 
Francis Donnelly WP 
Geraldine Dougan SF 
Cora Groogan SF 
Denis Haughey SDLP 
James Holmes AP 
William McCrea DUP 
Patsy McGlone SDLP 
Martin McGuinness SF 
Alan Millar DUP 
Francis Molloy SF 
Trevor Wilson UUP

Analysis:

The interesting battle in Mid-Ulster this time is between the two shades of green - Sinn Fein and the SDLP. The last time, Sinn Fein won hands down - with Martin McGuinness gathering 51% of the vote in the 2001 election. A glance at the results of the local government poll that year saw Sinn Fein on 40%, the SDLP on half that.

This constituency, which takes in Cookstown and Magherafelt councils, used to be held by the DUP's William McCrea in Westminster elections, even though it was naturally a nationalist seat. Mr.. McCrea's defeat by Mr.. McGuinness in 1997 was sealed by boundary changes, and the arrival of a big hitter from Sinn Fein. Nationalists, desperate to unseat McCrea, opted for McGuinness as the candidate most likely to succeed.

And now Sinn Fein is relying on his popularity to retain its three seats by standing Mr.. McGuinness alongside three candidates, including veteran Francie Molloy and two newcomers Geraldine Dougan and Cora Groogan.

Another veteran, John Kelly, has quit the party and it will be interesting to see what impact if any this has. Sinn Fein was not expected to take more than two seats last time, but is confident of winning three again.

Now the SDLP, which missed out on a second seat in 1998 through poor vote management, is determined that Sinn Fein will not get three. The party is fielding former junior minister Denis Haughey, alongside Patsy McGlone, a popular councillor who is making a big pitch for a seat.

The SDLP believes better management and transfers give it a fighting chance but they are up against a growing Sinn Fein vote.

On the unionist side, the Ulster Unionists and DUP should take a seat each. The DUP's William McCrea topped the poll last time. The outgoing UUP MLA Billy Armstrong is running along with Trevor Wilson.

Prediction: SF (3) SDLP (1) UUP (1) DUP (1) = no change

11/19/03 11:32 EST

SINN FEIN TO WIN FIVE EXTRA SEATS

Sinn Fein is poised to take at least five extra seats in next week's Northern Ireland Assembly election, the party predicted tonight.

 With voters due to go to the polls next Wednesday, a senior Sinn Fein source said the party would increase its representation at Stormont to at least 23 seats.

He also claimed that under the proportional representation system, there would be more transfers from the rival nationalist SDLP to his party.

"We are getting a lot of credit on the doorsteps for our efforts in the peace process," he said.

"We believe that we are on target to achieve a 60% transfer rate.  Our latest analysis shows that we can win at least five extra seats."

The source said Sinn Fein was intent on maximizing the nationalist vote and encouraging supporters to transfer down the ballot paper to the SDLP and then other pro-Good Friday Agreement candidates after backing republicans.

He said the party was emphasizing the need for strong nationalist representation at Stormont because there was a possibility that unionists could have more ministries in the next power sharing government if the Sinn Fein and SDLP votes were not maximized.

"We have been explaining that to people," he said. "However, I don`t think that some voters have been aware of that.  It is not a sectarian argument and people are content that Sinn Fein and the SDLP are going into this election on a pro-Agreement basis."

The Sinn Fein source dismissed SDLP claims, however, that in some constituencies the battle was between them and the Reverend Ian Paisley`s Democratic Unionists.

Sinn Fein today set out its policing policies but came under fire from the nationalist SDLP`s chairman Alex Attwood.

The West Belfast candidate claimed Sinn Fein`s manifesto had little to say on the real issues of law and order, such as car crime, protecting the elderly and investigating burglaries.

Attwood claimed: "Their manifesto has little to say on these issues because people know that there is little that they can do.  They`re not on the Policing Board. They are not on the District Policing Partnerships.  All they have delivered is their seats on these bodies to anti-Patten unionists."

The SDLP launched a 12-point plan which its representatives on the Policing Board and District Policing Partnerships would work to over the next four years.

They included ensuring that there was a proper police response to local emergency calls, pushing the police to pursue, prosecute and seize the assets of drug pushers and traffickers, prosecuting bars and off-licences that sell alcohol to under-18s, and getting more police officers out onto the streets instead of sitting behind desks.

The party was buoyed today by European Union Commissioner Chris Patten`s call for Sinn Fein to sign up to policing arrangements and urge young republicans to join the police.

Following yesterday`s public clash between Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and Democratic Unionist deputy leader Peter Robinson on the campaign trail, a former member of the UUP today launched a stinging attack on his ex- colleagues.

Democratic Unionist North Down Assembly candidate Peter Weir said: "The UUP are a party which abandons its words to the voters, thereby abandoning the people who voted for them.  There is a place for those people who have been let down by the Ulster Unionists. They can place their trust in the DUP."

Nov. 21, 2003

Election trail

SDLP dismissed DUP blueprint.  The DUP vision for devolution is out, out, out according to Mark Durkan.  "They say they want a voluntary coalition which would exclude other parties ... what they really want is majority rule."  Irish News P9.

Is this a vision Paisley sees before him?  Ciaran McKeown writes about the new DUP document and says that a question mark remains over whether it is a Paisley's "no, never" DUP or is it Nigel's "negotiation position" DUP. Newsletter P8.

Gerry Adams faces being accused of human rights abuses at the High Court in Belfast today.  Independent councillor Frank McCoubrey, with financial backing from the public and Shankill businessmen, is seeking a judicial review of Mr.. Adams' conduct as a MP.  Newsletter Ps 1 to 5, Irish News P13.

Robinson looks to the future with confidence - Suzanne Breen goes canvassing with the DUP.  Irish Times P10.

Send Paisley packing says SDLP.  East Antrim Danny O'Connor said the DUP leader was determined to destroy the Belfast Agreement.  Irish Times P10.

Spin Fein takes up 'no smoking' gun - former Minister Bairbre de Brun said yesterday it was Sinn Fein policy to ban smoking in public places.  Irish Independent P15.

Agreement stays as it is despite DUP talks claim - Mark Durkan accused the DUP of wrongly highlighting the probability of negotiations after the election to give the impression that the Good Friday Agreement could be renegotiated.

Irish Independent P15. Hume bangs European drum.  The former SDLP leader stressed the European dimension to peace in his speech at St Malachy's College before joining Mark Durkan on a city center walkabout.  Newsletter P9.

Election platform articles by Monica McWilliams, Bob McCartney and John Barry of the Green Party.  Irish News Ps 8, 9 and 10.

Constituency notebooks on Strangford and North Down.  Irish News Ps 8 and 10. A draw won't be sufficient we need a clear win writes St Clair McAllister. Newsletter P8.

East Belfast constituency notebook, Newsletter Ps 20 and 21. Interview with David Ford the Alliance leader.  Newsletter P22. DUP aims for 3rd seat on Robinson's surplus.  Irish Times P9. Ian Paisley Jnr and Gerry Kelly columns - Daily Mirror P34. Gerry Adams prays at his father's funeral for a united Ireland.  The Times P16 and Irish News P3.

11/21/03 13:16 EST

UNIONISTS URGED TO VOTE TACTICALLY

Unionists were tonight urged to thwart Sinn Fein's chances of winning extra seats during next week's Northern Ireland Assembly Election.

 As parties counted down to next Wednesday`s crucial Assembly Election, Sinn Fein refused to comment on Ulster Unionist Sir Reg Empey`s call on supporters to use their votes tactically.

The East Belfast Assembly candidate argued: "In some constituencies where, for instance, unionists might be in a minority, gains can be made by continuing to vote for parties who would perhaps keep Sinn Fein out of seats. Constituency by constituency people are going to have to look at it and make up their minds as to whether they can influence the final seats."

In what is expected to be a tight election, how voters use Northern Ireland`s complex proportional representation system could be crucial in determining the shape of the next Assembly.

Under the electoral system, voters mark the number one against their favorite candidate on the ballot paper, the figure two against their second favorite, a three against their third and keep going as far as they want.

This means if a candidate is elected or eliminated, their votes still count in the election and are transferred to other candidates in order of preference.

In a knife-edge vote, a second or third or even fourth preference could determine whether a seat falls into unionist, nationalist or cross community parties` hands.

Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble again urged supporters to give the party their initial preferences and then to transfer their votes to other unionist candidates.

Nationalist SDLP leader Mark Durkan has appealed during the campaign to supporters to give their later preferences to pro-Good Friday Agreement parties and has sought transfers from other parties, including unionists.

Sinn Fein`s Mitchel McLaughlin has also called on nationalists to give their first preferences to his party, then the SDLP and finally other pro-Agreement parties.

Seamus Mallon, the former deputy leader of the SDLP, today queried the Ulster Unionists` advice, arguing it was `bad politics` to urge support for pro-Union parties ahead of other pro-Agreement parties.

The Newry and Armagh MP said this meant pro-Good Friday Agreement unionists would be propping up the anti-Agreement Democratic Unionists.

"They are talking about voting for pro-Union candidates but they know as well as I do they are talking about voting DUP," he said.

"I would say to David Trimble and to Dermot Nesbitt screw your courage to the sticking point and we will get through this."

The Ulster Unionists launched a billboard campaign warning supporters  "It`s too important to stay at home" next Wednesday.

Trimble said he was confident the party was going to win the battle in unionism.

He attacked the rival Democratic Unionists, accusing them of recycling old ideas on devolution and running the "most fraudulent campaign in Ulster`s electoral history.²

Democratic Unionist leader, the Rev Ian Paisley said the repeated attacks on his party by pro-Good Friday Agreement opponents had far from damaged their cause.

"Time and time again the SDLP, Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party have all been on message with their attacks on the DUP," the North Antrim MP said.

"It is not quite clear whether these attacks are being orchestrated through (the UUP`s) Cunningham House or (Sinn Fein`s) Connolly House but it is no surprise to see nationalists urging transfers to the UUP.  This is a concerted but ineffective strategy and simply makes it clear why unionists need a party which is not dependent on nationalists for its survival."

11/21/03 13:24 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003: NEWRY AND ARMAGH

This constituency takes in all of Armagh District Council and the western part of Newry and Mourne District Council. The member of parliament has been Seamus Mallon (SDLP deputy leader) since he defeated Jim Nicholson (UUP) in a 1986 by-election. Newry and Armagh was created in 1983 and was hardly changed in 1995.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Seamus Mallon SDLP 
Paul Berry DUP 
Danny Kennedy UUP 
Conor Murphy SF 
Pat McNamee SF 
John Fee SDLP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

SDLP - 2 - 18953 - 35% 
SF - 2 - 14052 - 26% 
UUP - 1 - 9819 - 18.1% 
DUP - 1 - 7214 - 13.3% 
IND - 1227 - 2.3% 
NIWC - 1138 - 2.1% 
UI - 933 - 1.7% 
AP - 777 - 1.4%

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Paul Berry DUP 
Dominic Bradley SDLP 
Freda Donnelly DUP 
 John Fee SDLP 
William Frazer IND 
Davy Hyland SF 
Danny Kennedy UUP 
Jim Lennon SDLP 
Conor Murphy SF 
Pat O'Rawe SF
Peter Whitcroft AP

Analysis:

Stretching from the ecclesiastical capital of Ireland, Armagh, the new city of Newry to the IRA stronghold of south Armagh there's a gaping hole here this time - Seamus Mallon will be absent.

The decision of the former SDLP deputy leader to retire from the assembly will have given impetus to Sinn Fein. Their vote here has risen dramatically, from 26% in the 1998 assembly election to 35% in the 2001 local elections.

But it's still a long way off yielding them a third seat to add to the two won last time. Instead, this may prove a dry run for rising star Conor Murphy, who hopes to take the seat from the SDLP at the next Westminster election.

He is joined on the ticket by a woman, Pat O'Rawe and by Newry councillor Davy Hyland. The SDLP's best known face in Mr.. Mallon's absence is out-going MLA John Fee who is partnered by Dominic Bradley, a former director of elections for Mr.. Mallon, and Jim Lennon, a former party chairman.

There will still be two unionist quotas in this constituency.

Paul Berry took a seat here for the DUP last time which at 22 made him the youngest member of the assembly. He should be safe again, as should Ulster Unionist Danny Kennedy, who although pro-Agreement has found himself grouped with the party's so-called skeptics in recent months.

Both unionists will make much of the security question. The Army watchtowers which dot the border here will figure prominently - they want them to stay - but Sinn Fein want them to go and will capitalize on the fact that most are still there.

Prediction: SF (3) SDLP (1) UUP (1) DUP (1) = SF gain (1) SDLP loss (1)

11/22/03 10:34 EST

ADAMS ATTACKS DUP'S ELECTION STRATEGY

Sinn Féin president Mr.. Gerry Adams today launched a strong attack on the Reverend Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists, claiming they were playing "catch-up" with other parties over the peace process.

As he canvassed through his West Belfast constituency on the final weekend of campaigning before Wednesday's Assembly Election, Adams claimed the DUP were putting forward a "dishonest" argument.

He also dismissed as "silly" claims by the SDLP that they were the only party who could stop the Democratic Unionists from taking key seats in the November 26th election.

The West Belfast MP responded to the latest DUP document outlining alternative models for devolution: "The principles, the ethos, the structures of the Good Friday Agreement are not up for negotiation or renegotiation."

"Obviously there are those issues which need to be implemented and the means of delivering those have to be discussed. That is why we are going to have a review to see what progress can be made in the time ahead.  But you see what the DUP is doing is dishonest. It has always run away from negotiations in the past if you look at their entire history."

"However, the reality is the DUP is a party of failure and Ian Paisley has presided over the fragmentation of broad unionism."

The DUP on Thursday launched its 'Vision for Devolution' which outlined three alternatives to the system of power- sharing which operated in Northern Ireland until October of last year.

The party proposed that a voluntary coalition of two or more assembly parties could run Northern Ireland or the assembly could be given the power to take key decisions, removing the need for any cabinets.

11/22/03 15:23 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003:  NORTH DOWN

This constituency takes in the south-eastern coastal strip of Belfast Lough, including the whole of North Down District Council and Donaghadee in Ards District Council.

The member of parliament is Lady Sylvia Hermon (UUP); in the 2001 election she defeated the UKUP leader, Bob McCartney, who himself had first won the seat in a 1995 by- election caused by the death of Sir James Kilfedder, the leader of the Ulster Popular Unionist Party, who had represented North Down since the 1970s. The constituency was greatly reduced in size in 1983 and again altered in 1995.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Robert McCartney UKUP 
Sir John Gorman UUP 
Alan McFarland UUP 
Eileen Bell AP 
Peter Weir UUP 
Jane Morrice NIWC

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

UUP - 3 - 12147 - 32.6% 
UKUP - 1 - 8361 - 22.4% 
AP - 1 - 5368 - 14.4% 
DUP - 2571 - 6.9% 
SDLP - 2048 - 5.5% 
NIWC - 1 - 1808 - 4.8% 
UI - 1382 - 3.7% 
PUP - 1376 - 3.7% 
IND - 1327 - 3.6%

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

John Barry GRN 
Eileen Bell AP 
Christopher Carter IND 
Alan Chambers IND 
Leslie Cree UUP 
Alex Easton DUP 
Stephen Farry AP 
Alan Sydney Field IND 
Maria George SF 
Liam Logan SDLP 
Jane Morrice NIWC 
Robert McCartney UKUP 
Alan McFarland UUP 
Diana Peacocke UUP 
Julian Robertson CON 
David Rose PUP 
Tom Sheridan UKUP 
Peter Weir DUP 
Brian Wilson IND

Analysis:

The fight for the unionist vote in North Down is likely to be fierce - to the possible detriment of the middle ground.

The dominant figure here is the anti-Agreement Robert McCartney, leader of the UK Unionists. He lost his Westminster seat in acrimonious circumstances two years ago when Alliance candidate Dr Stephen Farry stood aside to allow the Ulster Unionist, Lady Sylvia Hermon a clear run.

But he's back as large as ever, though he must compete for the anti-Agreement vote with the DUP's Peter Weir, who was elected last time for the Ulster Unionists. Both should be safe.

The Ulster Unionists have a re-vamped team - out-going MLA Alan McFarland; and North Down councillors Leslie Cree a boyhood friend of party leader David Trimble and Diana Peacocke - have reason for hope, though one of them may be disappointed.

The Alliance deputy leader Eileen Bell might battle to hold her seat.  Other contenders are Jane Morrice of the Women's Coalition; the SDLP, who have perhaps helped their chances by running local man Liam Logan; the Ulster Unionists and even the DUP who say no-one should rule out local councillor Alex Easton taking a second seat for the party, although frankly it would be a long-shot.

 Prediction: UUP (3) UKUP (1) SDLP (1) NIWC (1) = SDLP gain (1) Alliance loss (1)

11/23/03 14:10 EST

DUP ACCUSED OF PARASITICAL APPROACH

The Democratic Unionist Party was tonight accused by its main rival of adopting a "parasitical" approach to the Belfast Agreement.

As Northern Ireland's tense Assembly Election entered its final week, senior Ulster Unionist Sir Reg Empey challenged the Rev Ian Paisley's party to explain why it had not walked away from Stormont on a point of principle.

The East Belfast candidate said: "There are people who have been benefiting from the Agreement, taking all the benefits such as membership of the Assembly and all the salaries that go with it, without contributing anything to its creation. That in my mind is parasitical behavior.  The DUP portrays itself as having this lofty position of opposing everything in the Agreement but the reality is they are participating in its structures.  Why have they not taken a principled stand of saying we oppose this Agreement, we oppose these institutions and will not participate in them?" he asked.

"It's because the DUP effectively accept all the institutions and are going to work the system."

Sir Reg's attack came as unionist, nationalist and cross community parties prepared for a frantic final push to persuade voters to come out and support them on Wednesday.

With 108 Assembly seats up for grabs, the battle for supremacy in nationalism between the SDLP and Sinn Féin is as fierce as it is in unionism between the DUP and Ulster Unionists.

Buoyed by their successes in the 2001 Westminster and local government elections, Sinn Fein is confident it will stretch its lead over Mark Durkan`s SDLP in the battle for the nationalist vote in Wednesday`s Assembly Election.

The Sinn Fein president, who has had to pull out of the campaign twice following the deaths of his sister-in-law and father, is hopeful.

"Although I haven`t been active in the campaign for a few days, I am told our election workers are getting a good response out on the canvass," he reveals.

"The feedback is very positive. The feeling is we are going to get our vote out.  There is a big job of vote management and I think there may be a problem over voter identification which will hit sections of our electorate because we represent some of the most disadvantaged people."

Sinn Fein strategists have predicted they will win at least five extra seats and are hopeful that under Northern Ireland`s complex proportional representation system, they will receive more vote transfers from other pro-Good Friday Agreement parties than ever before.

The party is also hoping to make a number of breakthroughs in seats where they have never really prospered before.

Former Belfast Lord Mayor Alex Maskey is the bookmaker`s favorite to top the poll in South Belfast, which has a sizable middle class vote.

Republicans are also targeting seats in unionist strongholds like the Reverend Ian Paisley`s constituency of North Antrim and South Antrim and hoping to take extra seats in West Tyrone, South Down, West Belfast and Foyle.

Should former IRA hunger striker Raymond McCartney take a third seat in Foyle for the party at the expense of the SDLP, party strategists believe that will shatter the confidence of their chief rival Mark Durkan.

The SDLP, of course, insists that will not happen.

Mark Durkan, who was Deputy First Minister in the power- sharing executive which was suspended last year, has been fronting much of the SDLP`s campaign.

This election is seen very much as his first real test as leader.

Five years ago, under John Hume`s leadership and in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement, the SDLP got more votes than any other party in Northern Ireland but under the proportional representation system ended up with less seats than David Trimble`s Ulster Unionists.

However, in the 2001 General and Local Government elections, the party suffered a major setback when, also under Hume`s leadership, the party fell behind Sinn Fein in terms of the number of Westminster seats and the popular vote.

Mark Durkan insists the party will prove the pundits who have begun to write their obituary wrong.

The SDLP leader, who has been engaged on a whistlestop tour of five constituencies, is due to go out on a canvass of Saturday evening Masses in Catholic churches with his West Belfast candidates Dr Joe Hendron and Alex Attwood.

The party`s pitch during the election campaign has been to urge people to back the SDLP in five key constituencies - Strangford, South Antrim, East Antrim, Lagan Valley and West Belfast - where they believe the battle for the last of the six seats in each area will be between them and the Rev Ian Paisley`s Democratic Unionists.

Gerry Adams has described argument this as `silly` and not standing up to scrutiny.

The SDLP has also urged voters from other parties to give them their later preferences on their ballot papers.

Durkan insists: "I think the story of this election is going to be that we confounded all the so-called experts` projections and expectations.  I think the SDLP is going to poll strongly because we are the strongest pro-Agreement party that there is.  We are strongest on the issues that matter to people. People also know a ballot paper that does not have transfers for the SDLP will guarantee nothing for the Agreement."

"People after this election will say, yes the SDLP has a lot more energy and vitality than people has given us credit for. They will say the SDLP has not run out of agenda after the Agreement, as if that was the fulfillment of everything that we stood for over the past 30 years. The fact is for us the Agreement is as much a point of departure as it is a point of arrival and we are setting out the agenda for how we use the institutions and some of things that we innovated when we were in government to really drive through change.  Some other parties are very good at calling for change but not very good at delivering."

With how ballot papers are marked crucial to the outcome of several seats, Durkan accuses Sinn Fein of telling some voters not to give their later preferences to the SDLP or other parties.

"They have been doing that in Lagan Valley and Gerry Adams, himself, even did it in this constituency during a television debate with me where he urged voters not to support Alex Attwood in their later transfers," he alleges.

"That suggests to me that Sinn Fein is quite happy to see the DUP win seats if that is at the SDLP`s expense. I don`t see how that it upholding the pro-Agreement interest.  Sinn Fein has also been suggesting they can work with the DUP as if they are moderates in waiting. But everyone knows the DUP are not pro-Agreement unionists trapped in anti- Agreement body. It is quite clear that they are out in this election to wreck the Agreement and Sinn Fein is playing into their trap."

11/23/03 16:44 EST

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2003:  SOUTH DOWN

This constituency takes in the largely rural south-eastern corner of Northern Ireland, including most of Down District Council, the eastern part of Newry and Mourne District Council, and a small part of Banbridge District Council.

The MP has been Eddie McGrady (SDLP) since he defeated Enoch Powell (UUP) in 1987. The constituency lost the Dromore area to Lagan Valley and Saintfield to Strangford in the 1995 revision.

Sitting members of the Assembly:

Eddie McGrady SDLP 
Mick Murphy SF  P J 
Bradley SDLP 
Dermot Nesbitt UUP 
Jim Wells DUP 
Eamon O'Neill SDLP

The Party breakdown of this vote was:

Party - seats won - overall vote -overall percentage of vote

SDLP - 3 - 23257 - 45.3 
SF - 1 - 7771 - 15.1 
UUP - 1 - 7419 - 14.4 
DUP - 1 - 4826 - 9.4 
UKUP - 2576 - 5 
NIWC - 1658 - 3.2 
IND - 1562 - 3 
AP - 1502 - 2.9 
LAB - 498 - 1

This is the list of the candidates for this years election:

Raymond Blaney GRN 
PJ Bradley SDLP 
Willie Clark SF 
Malachi Curran IND 
Jim Donaldson UUP 
Marian Fitzpatrick SDLP 
Eamonn McConvey SF 
Trudy Miller NIWC 
Dermot Nesbitt UUP 
Desmond O'Hagan WP 
Eamonn O'Neill SDLP 
Neil Powell AP 
Margaret Ritchie SDLP 
Catriona Ruane SF 
Jim Wells DUP 
Nelson Wharton UKUP

Analysis:

South Down is strong SDLP territory but they will have to defend the three seats won at the last assembly election without the sitting MP Eddie McGrady who isn't standing.

He lives on in the shape of his assistant and office manager Margaret Ritchie - a Down District councillor, who has a strong presence both locally and in the party generally. She will hope to take the seat vacated by Mr.. McGrady - running mates and out-going MLA's Eamonn O'Neill and PJ Bradley will be expecting to join her.

Sinn Fein, however, have hopes of taking a second seat to that won by Mick Murphy last time around - although the party has had difficulty getting a name candidate to rally behind. Mr.. Murphy isn't standing.  He was controversially dropped before the election-that-never-was in May. But his replacement too is now gone, replaced by the higher profile Catriona Ruane, a well known figure because of her involvement in the campaign to free three republicans currently imprisoned in Colombia.

The other Sinn Fein runners are Down councillors Willie Clarke and Eamonn McConvey.

On the unionist side there is probably one pro- and one anti-Agreement seat. If that's the case Trimble loyalist and former junior minister Dermot Nesbitt is safe. His running mate is the anti-Agreement Jim Donaldson, father of Lagan Valley MP and Trimble nemesis Jeffrey. He may be competing with outgoing MLA Jim Wells DUP who nevertheless remains a strong favorite.

Prediction: SDLP (2) SF (2) DUP (1) UUP (1) = SF gain (1) SDLP loss (1)

11/24/03 06:08 EST

VOTERS URGED TO TURN OUT ON WEDNESDAY

Voters in Northern Ireland were today given a "wake-up call" to turn up at polling stations and exercise their franchise for the Assembly elections.

Trade unionists, business and voluntary sector leaders issued the call at the launch of a new mobile poster campaign in Belfast stressing the importance of voting in Wednesday's Stormont election.

In a joint statement, Mr.. Roy Bailie, chairman of the Baird Group, and Mr.. Jim Fitzpatrick, president of the Belfast Chamber of Trade and Commerce, insisted that substantial gains have been made during devolution.

They said: "This election is vitally important as it will determine how Northern Ireland will proceed over the next five years and how our children in the future will live. There is no denying that substantial gains have been made since devolved government became a reality here."

"There is also no denying that the Northern Ireland Assembly has gone through difficult times and for that reason some people may have lost their enthusiasm to vote. However, we feel strongly that each of us has a responsibility to use our vote and to ensure that democracy is given its best opportunity to work positively for everyone in Northern Ireland."

With 48 hours left in the election campaign, there is still concern about voter apathy.

Northern Secretary Mr.. Paul Murphy yesterday urged voters to turn out at polling stations on No