TUESDAY, SEPT. 24, 2002

Apart from the continued coverage of the return of the Armagh GAA team, the most covered subject today is reaction to the Ulster Unionist ultimatum.  The information is courtesy of the Northern Ireland Information service.

Unionist Ultimatum

The sense of crisis within the political process deepened with parties criticizing the UUP for issuing its ultimatum for the IRA to disband.  Alliance, the SDLP, Sinn Féin and the Women's Coalition all blamed Mr.... Trimble for worsening the situation while the DUP has demanded fresh elections, Irish Times (p7). 

UUP threat prompts emergency meeting - Irish and British Ministers will meet tomorrow for discussions on what to do next following the UUP treat to pull out of the Executive.  The Republic's Foreign Affairs Minister Brian Cowen and the Secretary of State are to hold talks in Dublin.  This will be a stocktaking meeting to look at the situation and the way in which the Governments can try to ensure that difficulties are resolved within the process, Irish News (p1). 

Community relations 'at 25 year low.'  The First Minister accused Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin of shedding crocodile tears about the crisis in the peace process, News Letter (p6).

Trimble move has sparked political crisis, warns Durkan.  The SDLP leader says there is deep angry among supporters of the Good Friday Agreement and that he was seeking urgent talks with Mr.... Trimble as well as the other parties and the two Government, Irish Independent (p9).

Trimble accused of betraying nationalists.  Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness joined SDLP Executive colleagues in angrily lambasting the Ulster Unionist leader, Irish News (p11).

Trimble accused of trying to wreck Good Friday peace deal, Mirror (p1,4).

United stand on last chance for IRA - Martin Smyth, President of the Ulster Unionist Council says that enough is enough, News Letter (p9).

Irish News editorial (p8) the slide into political crisis accelerated with Mark Durkan directing angry criticism against the UUP and the DUP's Ian Paisley calling for immediate elections.....Mr. Durkan's concern is easy to understand as he watching the undermining of progress which has been so painstakingly constructed since 1998....it is disturbing that the loyalist campaign of violence which was always designed to damage the Good Friday Agreement has come so close to achieving its aim....republicans have also been involved in unacceptable activity, but, as the police have confirmed on no where near the same scale as the loyalists...the most bizarre aspect is that the 'no' camp including the DUP has yet to put forward any alternative policies which stand the slightest chance of proving viable.

The following transcripts are courtesy of the Northern Ireland Information Service.
 

MARK DEVENPORT - BBC NEWSLINE        Sept. 23,  2002
 

DONNA TRAINOR

There's a familiar air of crisis in the peace process today.  At the weekend the Ulster Unionists imposed a three-month deadline for republicans to convince them that they've given up violence for good.  The move has been criticized as regrettable, hypocritical and a stunt by various nationalist and unionist opponents. 

NOEL THOMPSON

If the Ulster Unionists get no satisfaction, this is how events might unfold in the new year.  On Jan. 18, the Ulster Unionist Council will move to endorse its policy of pulling out of the Executive.  Two days later, David Trimble and his Ministers will resign from the Executive with immediate effect.  A week after that, the empty Executive posts will be filled, and depending on the stance of the DUP by then, they could all be taken by nationalists. 

March  3 is the date by which the Assembly must re-elect a First and Deputy First Minister, with no candidate able to carry cross-community support, this will be impossible, and this will set the scene for possible elections in late April or early May.  This new threat to devolution dominated proceedings at the Assembly this afternoon, as our political editor, Mark Devenport reports.

MARK DEVENPORT

It looks like business as usual in the Assembly Chamber for the First Minister.  But concern over his threat to resign in January overshadowed the proceedings.

JOHN DALLAT

Those who fooled themselves at the weekend that they could put the clock back should get real with electorate and begin telling them the truth.  The world is moving on, and so are we, whether they like it or not.

MARK DEVENPORT

(Unclear) by one more nationalist jibe, the Ulster Unionist leader hit back.

DAVID TRIMBLE

Well I'm sure the member is very glad that on Saturday we managed to save the Agreement, and give it another chance to succeed, and prevent it collapsing, which would otherwise, and I think we need to put that in context.

MARK DEVENPORT

The Assembly was debating the Executive's Program for Government today.  But whether that power-sharing Government lasts much beyond the New Year, now seems highly unlikely.

The most immediate impact of the Ulster Unionist sanctions will be to stop meetings between Sinn Féin Ministers like Martin McGuinness and their Southern counterparts.  Visiting an exhibition of technology for schools today, Mr.... McGuinness indicated that he believed the skeptics were in the driving seat.

MARTIN McGUINNESS

We've effectively now seen Jeffrey Donaldson elevated himself into a senior leadership position, within the party.  Some people, I think as a result of the weekend's events probably now regard him as the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, and if that turns out to be the case eventually, as a result of how this process moves forward, then Jeffrey Donaldson is going to have to face up to the reality that Sinn Féin isn't going to go away.

MARK DEVENPORT

Instead of waiting for the January deadline, set at the weekend, the Ulster Unionist opponents argue that an election should be held now.

PETER ROBINSON

let's have the election now, I hope that other political parties will recognize the commonsense of that approach.  There is no advantage for any political party save the Ulster Unionist party in stretching it out to the various deadlines that will be put down, and the various stunts that will be performed.

MARK DEVENPORT

John Reid meets the Irish Foreign Minister, Brian Cowan on Wednesday to assess the way forward.  The future is unclear, but it's safe to assume that an immediate election isn't high on the two men's list of priorities.

NOEL THOMPSON

And Mark is with me now.  Mark just do as we know exactly what we're talking about here.  If republicans don't give the Ulster Unionists what they want, is the collapse of the Executive and the Assembly inevitable?

MARK DEVENPORT

I think it's highly likely, Noel, because the Ulster Unionist have made it pretty clear they want to resign, they have a very clear interest given the challenge that they'll be facing future elections from the DUP, distancing themselves from republicans.  Obviously, the Government could at any stage step in and try to suspend the process as it has done in the past, but if it doesn't use that mechanism, it looks like the Executive is going down.

NOEL THOMPSON

Now David Trimble will say that republicans have responded to pressure applied by him in the past, but is this a demand too far?

MARK DEVENPORT

I think they've deliberately set the bar high, if you like, because they know, this election is coming.  I don't think anybody is really expecting the final winding up of the Provisional IRA by January 18th.  Instead I think any dealing will probably be in talk after the election, or talks certainly during the course of next year, if the election is delayed.

NOEL THOMPSON

Now do the events of the weekend make it less or more likely that David Trimble will lead his party into that election, whenever it comes?

MARK DEVENPORT

Well he survived a major challenge I think, things were looking at one stage quite dicey there, at the Ulster Unionist Council for him.  He has held onto his position and he says he's determined to lead them into the next election.  There is the question though, of when that might come, because essentially, I suppose it could come early, or it could be delayed if the Government decides that's the best strategy.

NOEL THOMPSON

How would you describe the mood in the world of politics today?

MARK DEVENPORT

Fluid, I would say. There was a lot of bad feeling towards David Trimble from, particularly people like the SDLP who have closely allied themselves in the center there, and a lot of criticism was thrown at him from that side.  At the same stage, there are those who believe well he backed into this corner, and had no choice.

SEAMUS CLOSE - EVENING EXTRA - Sept. 23, 2002

MARK CARRUTHERS

The Alliance Party has accused David Trimble of pandering to anti-Agreement unionists following the weekend's Ulster Unionist Council meeting.  Alliance said the unionists had manufactured a crisis since setting a 3 month deadline for the full implementation of the Agreement ahead of the next Assembly elections.  I'm joined now by the party's Lagan Valley MLA Seamus Close.  So do you believe with your party leader's comments that David Trimble has manufactured a crisis?

SEAMUS CLOSE

I believe that the situation in which David Trimble found himself in on Saturday was, to put it mildly rather unfortunate.  Obviously there's a large growing opinion within the Ulster Unionist Party that would be opposed to the implementation of the Agreement as they see it. 

Therefore, I regret what happened at the weekend, but in many respects I can understand why Trimble had to move to Donaldson's territory.  Because if one reads the body language, for example, on the Friday night, whenever David Trimble and Jeffrey Donaldson met, one could easily see that David Trimble was in a distinct possibility of losing out. 

So therefore, I believe if he had forced a vote on Saturday, he probably would have lost, and in that situation would have had to resign as leader, and that would have created bigger problems for the institutions and the Assembly than we currently have.

MARK CARRUTHERS

That's quite an interesting theory.  I mean, you're not a political correspondent, but I'm curious to know your views on this.  If, and you're not the first person to have suggested this to me, that possibly if it had gone to vote, David Trimble has lost.  Now, Jeffrey Donaldson must have been very aware of that.  Why didn't he push it to a vote, and actually follow through?

SEAMUS CLOSE

Because I think that he recognized that he didn't want to be taking over leadership at this particular juncture, because in order to have won the vote, he would have split the part, and therefore it's much better to have a unified party, all be it going in the direction that I might not necessarily like or appreciate, but it's much better having a unified party than one that is clearly riven down the middle with obvious disagreements, and for the whole personality clash would have come to the fore.  That's no way in which to go in and fight an election. 

So I think that now, at least, we have a three-month period for the Government, and particularly the Government, and by the Government I refer to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State, to do something to get to grips with the unacceptable level of violence that is permeating our society.  We need to, the Government needs to restore good faith in the implementation of the Agreement, and what has been lacking, what has been sorely lacking is the whole question of paramilitaries, of terrorism on our streets, day and daily we get a diet of it. 

And one has only got to look at the statistics, in 1999/2000 there 131 shooting incidents, in the year 2001/2002 there were 358, and again if you look at bombings in 1999/2000 there were 66 bombings.  That has now risen to 318, so what the people are saying, immaterial of whether they're Ulster Unionists or whatever, the people are saying, action must be taken, and therefore there is a large degree of responsibility on those who I would term have got the ear of paramilitary organizations, to now effectively decide, do they want the institutions to remain, or are they going to allow them to go down the "Swanny" as they say, and to return to a period of Direct Rule.

MARK CARRUTHERS

Let me just ask you, finally and very briefly.  What is your analysis, what's your best guess as to what's likely to happen come mid-January, do you think the whole thing is going to come crashing down around our ears, because republicans failed to deliver what David Trimble needs, or do you think that they in fact, as David Trimble has suggested in the past, respond best to this kind of pressure being applied?

SEAMUS CLOSE

Those involved in violence and who have the ear of those involved in violence, seem to leave it to the 11th hour to make any sort of movement.  So therefore, I feel that there will probably be some minor movement around about Jan. 16 or 17, that will probably be insufficient to enable the Assembly to continue, and I feel that we're probably looking at earlier elections than May 1.

GARETH GORDON - EVENING EXTRA - Sept. 23,  2002

MARK CARRUTHERS

We turn first tonight to what the SDLP leader, Mark Durkan has called a crisis in the political process.  It follows the Ulster Unionists threat to withdraw from the Executive, unless republicans prove to him they're committed to peace by the Jan, 18. 

Against that background, the Assembly tried to carry on as normal today, with a new draft Program for Government being launched.  But as our political correspondent, Gareth Gordon, now reports the atmosphere was slightly surreal.

DAVID TRIMBLE

The Deputy First Minister and I have pleasure in presenting to this Assembly, on behalf of the Executive, our draft Program for Government, covering the next financial year and beyond.

GARETH GORDON

A stranger to these shores would have been forgiven for thinking it was business as usual.  Here where the First and Deputy Ministers side by side, presenting their draft Program for Government for the coming year.  Improvements to our infrastructure, a 100 new hospital beds by March 2005, and a revamp of the planning system, among a wide ranging program.  A program which may never take place if the Ulster Unionists aren't reassured about the intentions of republicans by the 18th January. 

DAVID TRIMBLE

We now have the experience of developing and implementing 2 previous programs endorsed by this Assembly.  We want to use this experience building on our achievements to steer us through the months and years ahead.  I believe that there is much that we have achieved, and much that we can be proud of.  We've shown that we can work together across all 4 parties in the Administration, to plan for and deliver good Government.

 GARETH GORDON

But for how much longer?  Mark Durkan played a straight bat in the house, but he told journalists this morning of his anger, saying the political process is in crisis, and claiming Mr.... Trimble was now, as he put it, wearing a sandwich board for Jeffrey Donaldson and the anti-Agreement position.  His party colleague, John Dallat, used even less diplomat language.

JOHN DALLAT

None of this is possible.  If we continue to have this Saturday morning fur coat brigade voting like turkeys for Christmas, the 'no campers' of this world don't give a damn about equality, social inclusion or other (unclear) need to believe that they can turn the clock back to the good old days, when they reigned supreme.  To them, I say, as we discuss this Program of Government, we are not going back to those days.  No cap in hand, no begging bowl and no subservient to our absentee landlord.

GARETH GORDON

The DUP want the Assembly dissolved, and immediate elections.  The party leader, Ian Paisley, poured scorn on the Program for Government.

IAN PAISLEY

And the Chief Ministers party, has been making statements of the strongest possible manner, in the strongest possible manner, to say that things are going to change, and there's going to be a difference, we are told that the (unclear) date is the 18th of January.  Now we are told that he's presenting, and I noticed his words, priority for the next few years.

GARETH GORDON

The PUP leader, David Ervine, was laden with doom about the future.

DAVID ERVINE

When the weekend, the battle took place, and we see the situation where the frightened are offering the controls of the machinery again to the frightening.  That, instead of forging ahead with politics,  that might work by genuinely building partnerships along lines that can build common purpose, we seen an illusion much like the decommissioning illusion, where we hand the throttle, the clutch and the brake to the paramilitaries in Northern Ireland.  When are we going to learn that you don't offer the controls to the lowest common denominator.

GARETH GORDON

But Mr..... Trimble was having none of that.  In response to a jibe from another SDLP member, he said the weekend had been about saving the Agreement, not destroying it.

DAVID TRIMBLE

Well, I'm sure the member is very glad that on Saturday we managed to save the Agreement, and give it another chance to succeed, and prevent it collapsing, which in otherwise, and I think we need to put that in context.

GARETH GORDON

But that's an argument. No other party at the Assembly can grasp.  What began as an apparent crisis within unionism has spread along the very corridors of Stormont itself.

SHANE HARRISON - EVENING EXTRA - 25 SEPTEMBER 2002

AUDREY CARVILLE

The Secretary of State, Dr. John Reid, has been meeting with the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen, in Dublin this afternoon.  The meeting follows the Ulster Unionist decision to pull out of Government by January the 18th if republicans don't meet their list of demands.

From Dublin, we're joined by our correspondent, Shane Harrison.

Was anything said today, Shane, about the dissidents' threat to recruits to the Police Service of Northern Ireland?

SHANE HARRISON

Well, obviously, the whole question of Catholic recruitment to the new Police Service has been a major, and indeed a controversial issue with the British Government to unionist opposition wanting a 50/50 recruitment drive.  Now the Secretary of State, John Reid, today acknowledged that there was a dissident threat.  He said it didn't help.  But then he went on to say that London will do everything in its power to have a police force representative of and acceptable to both sides of the Northern Ireland community.

SECRETARY OF STATE

It would be a terrible, terrible tragic irony, if the demand of 80 years by nationalists, by republicans and by the Catholic community on this island that we have a police service in Northern Ireland, into which young Catholics can join, where they will have access, where they could be promoted, where they can rise through the ranks, as they can now in Government in Northern Ireland. 

It would be a terrible tragedy if that decades-long demand was to be stymied and blocked by the murderous threats of people from the republican side of the community.

 AUDREY CARVILLE

Shane this is the first meeting, of course, between these 2 men since the weekend's Ulster unionist Council meeting.  It had been billed, I suppose, as a stock taking exercise.  Did anything new emerge from it?

SHANE HARRISON

Well, both men stressed that while there had been a full discussion this afternoon, it was only an initial set of talks, and there would be more inter-Governmental and, indeed, inter-party talks.  Now, given the January deadline set by the unionists and the May election date, there has been speculation that there may have to be another suspension, something that nationalists and particularly Sinn Féinwould strongly oppose. 

Now Brian Cowen never explicitly said that Dublin would also oppose another suspension, but I think the following gives you a very clear idea of where Dublin stands on the issue.

BRIAN COWEN

We want to now try and ensure that the integrity of the Agreement is upheld, and that everybody who has benefited across the community, the peace and prosperity which we are trying to devise against a background of conflict and devastation and hurt and grief, that having turned that page, we're not going to turn it back. 

And it is not sensible for any of us to try and look at scenarios where we are, if you like, denying ourselves the prospect of the potential of these Institutions to resolve our problems.

AUDREY CARVILLE

Did John Reid have anything to say about suspension?

SHANE HARRISON

Well, John Reid kept making the point that these were really only initial talks, that no decisions had been made.  He went on to say that nobody likes deadlines, but also that there was no alternative to the Good Friday Agreement.  And not for the first time, he went on to say that nationalists have to be reassured by unionists that they are prepared to share power with Catholics. 

At the same time unionists need reassurance from republicans that they are committed to the Mitchell Principals and to exclusively peaceful means.  I think there's going to be quite a lot more talks between now and January.

AUDREY CARVILLE

Yes, there are more talks tomorrow between the Taoiseach and some parties from Northern Ireland.

SHANE HARRISON

There are indeed.  But in terms of deciding which way the whole peace process goes, how to deal with the unionist deadline, I don't think any clear decision has been made, but what's clear is that the SDLP, and indeed Sinn Fein, will be coming to the Taoiseach tomorrow, and indeed also talking to Brian Cowen, the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, and stressing that, as far as they are concerned, the whole peace process has to move forward, and stressing their opposition to suspension.
 

MARK DEVENPORT, GOOD MORNING ULSTER,  Sept. 26, 2002         
                                    
SEAMUS MCKEE

Mr..... Haass was speaking at a briefing in Washington and our political editor Mark Devenport is with us.  What did he say?

MARK DEVENPORT

Well, Richard Haass has a reputation for not mincing words and in this case he didn't.  He said that whilst he knew paramilitaries and sectarianism is the chief obstacle to normalization here he was concerned that setting a new deadline would increase the sense of crisis, increase polarization, undermine trust and make it all the more difficult to focus on making the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement work.

SEAMUS MCKEE

What particularly is the concern here?

MARK DEVENPORT

Obviously, I think the US echo the view of the British and Irish Government that they would like to see pro-Agreement unionists talking up the Agreement getting out there and selling it, taking a pro-active stance instead they find that the Ulster Unionists are consistently caught in this problem of having to look over their shoulders at anti-Agreement unionists and I think obviously the US would have liked it if the institutions could be kept up and running.  But they, like the British and Irish Governments are now looking at a situation where it seems extremely likely that these threatened resignations will go ahead in January.

SEAMUS MCKEE

I don't know what your sense has been this week to the mood within the Ulster Unionist Party.  But do you have any sense that what happened at the weekend brought them together and there is, as somebody put it to me at Stormont earlier this week, there is a sort of inner glow in the Ulster Unionist Party now But what you have as well as that is a distinct chill elsewhere?

MARK DEVENPORT

Yes, in a sense it is easier for the Ulster Unionists at the moment.  You talked to party officers and they say, everyone in the party is happy because at least we are singing off the same hymn sheet at the moment.  So that is what they did at the weekend, they made everybody in the party relatively happy. 

Obviously there is going to be differences of opinion between the differing wings.  But the price that they have paid for that is to take the heat from just about every other sector in the peace process.

SEAMUS MCKEE

And yet what the Ulster Unionists would say or many of them you talk to say look what we did was essentially we are putting the party first and that is what lots of other parties have done throughout this whole process.

MARK DEVENPORT

Maybe they are moving from a process to a protest at the moment but I think they say that we don't want to make the mistake that they believe that John Hume made which was to put country before party.  They say if we come out at the other side of this election with no party then we won't be players of any kind at all.  

SEAMUS MCKEE

And if there is no Ulster Unionist Party they argue there is no process anyway.

MARK DEVENPORT

Exactly so it all goes around a circle.  At the same time nationalists are feeling extremely alienated at the moment and they seem to be coming ever closer to in effect calling for some kind of joint authority, they are basically saying the British and Irish Government must get on with it. 

Must implement the institutions of the Agreement, must press ahead, come what may because I think that reflects the fact that they are by no means certain that any review, renegotiation, whatever you want to call it, before or after these elections will actually achieve anything.

SEAMUS MCKEE

And they will not be heartened by what is happening in the various selection meetings that are going on within Ulster Unionism with a view to the next election.  Look what happened for example last night at Lagan Valley.

MARK DEVENPORT

Well, this is where the happiness within the party obviously has its limited because whilst there was a marriage of convenience at the weekend there are still two very distinct wings out there and there are people with memories who do not forget which side people were on. 

What happened last night was that Ivan Davis the chief whip of the Assembly party, a key ally of David Trimble was de-selected, he will not be able to stand for election in the next Assembly elections.  Instead you've got Jeffrey Donaldson, obviously the pin up boy of the skeptical faction along with two other skeptics and one pro-Agreement politician Billy Bell selected.  There is a long history to this, Ivan Davis was actually de-selected from local council elections last year and then was put back in place.

 I don't know whether headquarters will try a similar strategy, but if you put this alongside the de-selection of Ian Adamson in East Belfast and the retirement of a number of David Trimble's allies you can see that the Ulster Unionist Party, the other side of the next elections, whenever they happen is going to be far more skeptical than it was in the past.